03/18/11 - Gaddafi’s Libyan government declared an immediate cease fire, abandoning its rabid dog talk of “no mercy” for dissidents and reprisals against civilian targets in the Med, and stating instead: “We decided on an immediate ceasefire and on an immediate stop to all military operations... Libya takes great interest in protecting civilians." While this was said, Gaddafi forces continued attacking civilian targets. Yes, with tanks and armored carriers blasting their way into civilian occupied cities and firing indiscriminately at anyone who moved...with snipers and commandos posted on buildings and breaking into homes in the dead of night to kidnap civilians suspected of siding with the opposition. Gaddafi is a man who would only respond to one thing--force. In this case, just as I suspected and wrote of in these posts, the mere declaration of the No Fly Zone and intimation that we would begin hitting targets, including his precious Khamis and Saadi Brigades, convinced him to abandon his “line of death” rhetoric and become very peace loving--overnight.
Don’t believe it. Gaddafi is playing for time. He does not want his army destroyed by Western Air power, so he will instead hope to position it outside the last rebel stronghold of Benghazi under the cover of a “cease fire” and then use special ops and secret police units in the dark of night to launch in and out raids on the city that he can blame on “armed madmen.” Evil loves darkness. This, too, is a tactic that will fail. He will find the opposition in Benghazi armed and ready for his thugs, should they appear.
Faced with the prospect of air strikes within hours, as air units from Britain, France, Canada, Norway, the US and many Gulf Arab nations began to muster, Gaddafi folded his hand--game over. The resistance now has the best fighting air force units in the world available to provide cover, and even Gaddafi’s advantage on the ground with tanks and heavy artillery can be quickly and completely neutralized by this power.
This is what the West, and the UN, should have done weeks ago, and it may be a decisive moment in the troubled history of this region.
03/17/11 - Lots of tough talk from both sides and in the international community, where hints of a no-fly zone, or something more, continued to circulate in the news. The talk, a month in the making, finally became action when the UN authorized a No Fly Zone over Libya, and “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. A defiant Gaddafi said his army would show “no mercy” to the citizens of Benghazi, and stated he would launch another “final battle” for Misurata to cleans it from bands of roving madmen holding the population hostage. His forces lost at least 80 men yesterday and were repulsed for a fourth time in that effort. Meanwhile, the Saadi Brigade in the east has been heavily reinforced with elements of the veteran Khamis Brigade, fresh from its pogrom at Az Zawiyah. Should he persist and attempt to attack Benghazi, “all necessary measures” could quickly become direct strikes against his armored units.
Gaddafi was no happy: “This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too...We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace." His pledge to “get crazy” is perhaps one of the great understatements of our day.
The Military situation has now dramatically changed. It was clear to me days ago that the single Saadi Brigade (not to be confused with Saudi Arabia in any way) was inadequate to the task that lay before it in Cyrenacia. Gaddafi has now brought in his most ruthless fighters, and tribal forces, to try and finish the job before the international community can put teeth behind its words. He still has two choices--a direct attack on Benghazi or a lightning jab across the desert road, Rommel style, aimed at Tobruk to isolate the rebellion in Cyrenacia. The reinforced eastern command now has the forces to consider both options, and they have been taking on loads of supplies before launching this last planned stage of their counteroffensive. The Western No Fly Zone will apply to his flights of mercenaries from Sudan, Chad and other Central African locations, so his army must now fight with the means it presently has.
The No Fly Zone removes Gaddafi’s air force from the battle, which was only marginally effective in the fighting to date, (more a psychological weapon than anything else), but the threat of further action against Gaddafi’s ground units is a whole new matter. The Western air forces involved, from the US, France, the UK, Kuwait and the UAE, are highly experienced and capable forces. If the member states signing on to this resolution find their backbone they can stop Gaddafi’s army completely, using air power alone, well before it reaches either Benghazi or Tobruk.. Gaddafi would do well to remember the “highway of death” as Saddam’s army tried to flee from Kuwait. Western air force units can wreak destruction and havoc on his armored columns in the open desert terrain. If the UN words are truly backed by action, this is a “game over” for Gaddafi’s military. This would be the best possible outcome, and likely lead to a cease fire with the UN brokering the peace. Gaddafi’s objective now must be to close with his enemies on the ground, so that the Western advantage of air power is more difficult to use in urban areas inhabited by civilians.
The US must know exactly what is happening on the ground. They undoubtedly have been looking in on things with high resolution satellite imagery and know the disposition and strength of Gaddafi forces. CV Enterprise, which transited the Suez for a rendezvous in the North Arabian Sea days ago, has now reversed course and returned to the Red Sea. This carrier alone could have completely halted the Saadi Brigade along the exposed open coastal road, many days ago, but the Obama administration was not able to find a backbone over this issue, and many other issues in this historic uprising.
Reluctant to act on on its own, the US sought some international consensus, and was upstaged by France, who recognized the Libyan Interim Council in Benghazi and called for a no fly zone last week. Yet it was not until the Arab League seconded that call that the US really took notice. Obama follows, rather than leads. He seeks consensus where he should be defining a decisive stand against Gaddafi and in favor of the Libyan Revolution. Decisive action now could win the “hearts and minds” of a whole generation of young Arab people, struggling for human rights, freedom and democracy. But the US equivocated, talked, ruminated, parsed words, while Gaddafi, took decisive action on his front. Now, with Gaddafi forces in a position to strike either Tobruk or Benghazi, the US is late to the party. Will the application of Western Air power be enough to back the dictator down? Or will Gaddafi fight like a cornered tiger and use the full weight of his military against all comers.
Don’t believe it. Gaddafi is playing for time. He does not want his army destroyed by Western Air power, so he will instead hope to position it outside the last rebel stronghold of Benghazi under the cover of a “cease fire” and then use special ops and secret police units in the dark of night to launch in and out raids on the city that he can blame on “armed madmen.” Evil loves darkness. This, too, is a tactic that will fail. He will find the opposition in Benghazi armed and ready for his thugs, should they appear.
Faced with the prospect of air strikes within hours, as air units from Britain, France, Canada, Norway, the US and many Gulf Arab nations began to muster, Gaddafi folded his hand--game over. The resistance now has the best fighting air force units in the world available to provide cover, and even Gaddafi’s advantage on the ground with tanks and heavy artillery can be quickly and completely neutralized by this power.
This is what the West, and the UN, should have done weeks ago, and it may be a decisive moment in the troubled history of this region.
03/17/11 - Lots of tough talk from both sides and in the international community, where hints of a no-fly zone, or something more, continued to circulate in the news. The talk, a month in the making, finally became action when the UN authorized a No Fly Zone over Libya, and “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. A defiant Gaddafi said his army would show “no mercy” to the citizens of Benghazi, and stated he would launch another “final battle” for Misurata to cleans it from bands of roving madmen holding the population hostage. His forces lost at least 80 men yesterday and were repulsed for a fourth time in that effort. Meanwhile, the Saadi Brigade in the east has been heavily reinforced with elements of the veteran Khamis Brigade, fresh from its pogrom at Az Zawiyah. Should he persist and attempt to attack Benghazi, “all necessary measures” could quickly become direct strikes against his armored units.
Gaddafi was no happy: “This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too...We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace." His pledge to “get crazy” is perhaps one of the great understatements of our day.
The Military situation has now dramatically changed. It was clear to me days ago that the single Saadi Brigade (not to be confused with Saudi Arabia in any way) was inadequate to the task that lay before it in Cyrenacia. Gaddafi has now brought in his most ruthless fighters, and tribal forces, to try and finish the job before the international community can put teeth behind its words. He still has two choices--a direct attack on Benghazi or a lightning jab across the desert road, Rommel style, aimed at Tobruk to isolate the rebellion in Cyrenacia. The reinforced eastern command now has the forces to consider both options, and they have been taking on loads of supplies before launching this last planned stage of their counteroffensive. The Western No Fly Zone will apply to his flights of mercenaries from Sudan, Chad and other Central African locations, so his army must now fight with the means it presently has.
The No Fly Zone removes Gaddafi’s air force from the battle, which was only marginally effective in the fighting to date, (more a psychological weapon than anything else), but the threat of further action against Gaddafi’s ground units is a whole new matter. The Western air forces involved, from the US, France, the UK, Kuwait and the UAE, are highly experienced and capable forces. If the member states signing on to this resolution find their backbone they can stop Gaddafi’s army completely, using air power alone, well before it reaches either Benghazi or Tobruk.. Gaddafi would do well to remember the “highway of death” as Saddam’s army tried to flee from Kuwait. Western air force units can wreak destruction and havoc on his armored columns in the open desert terrain. If the UN words are truly backed by action, this is a “game over” for Gaddafi’s military. This would be the best possible outcome, and likely lead to a cease fire with the UN brokering the peace. Gaddafi’s objective now must be to close with his enemies on the ground, so that the Western advantage of air power is more difficult to use in urban areas inhabited by civilians.
The US must know exactly what is happening on the ground. They undoubtedly have been looking in on things with high resolution satellite imagery and know the disposition and strength of Gaddafi forces. CV Enterprise, which transited the Suez for a rendezvous in the North Arabian Sea days ago, has now reversed course and returned to the Red Sea. This carrier alone could have completely halted the Saadi Brigade along the exposed open coastal road, many days ago, but the Obama administration was not able to find a backbone over this issue, and many other issues in this historic uprising.
Reluctant to act on on its own, the US sought some international consensus, and was upstaged by France, who recognized the Libyan Interim Council in Benghazi and called for a no fly zone last week. Yet it was not until the Arab League seconded that call that the US really took notice. Obama follows, rather than leads. He seeks consensus where he should be defining a decisive stand against Gaddafi and in favor of the Libyan Revolution. Decisive action now could win the “hearts and minds” of a whole generation of young Arab people, struggling for human rights, freedom and democracy. But the US equivocated, talked, ruminated, parsed words, while Gaddafi, took decisive action on his front. Now, with Gaddafi forces in a position to strike either Tobruk or Benghazi, the US is late to the party. Will the application of Western Air power be enough to back the dictator down? Or will Gaddafi fight like a cornered tiger and use the full weight of his military against all comers.
While Gaddafi has hinted that Benghazi will “fall without a fight,” let us add that to the realm of wishful thinking on his part. The resistance cannot truly match the Libyan army, but they will undoubtedly fight on, as they fight today in Misurata. Action still continues today around Ajdabiya, though Gaddafi forces are still over 100 miles south of Benghazi. Air strikes were also reported near Benghazi, with no damage reported. It is likely that we will soon see the fledgling Libyan air force grounded, removing at least one weapon at Gaddafi’s disposal.
