03/07/11 - Conflicting reports were the order of the day over the weekend. Fighters in the besieged city of Az-Zawiya, 30 miles west of Tripoli, successfully repelled another major attempt by pro-Gaddafi forces to occupy the city, even while state TV in Tripoli broadcast that they city had been retaken. Yet rebel spokesmen in Zawiya reported to Al Jazeera that Libyan army forces loyal to Gaddafi penetrated to Martyr’s Square, several hundred strong with supporting armor, but were then driven out again by defending freedom fighters. 30 were reported dead and up to 200 injured in the fighting. The Israeli site Debka reported a different result in the battle for Az-Zawiya stating: “The Khamis Brigade No. 32 of the Libyan army, which Saturday morning won the battle for Zawiyah 30 kilometers west of Tripoli, using tanks, Grad surface missiles and artillery to break down opposition defenses.” It was clear by Sunday that pro-Gaddafi forces were no longer in the heart of the town, and had been forced to withdraw.
Elsewhere, the fighting on the coastal road continued from Ras Lanuf west, with the area still in dispute. Debka’s analysis claims the Libyan army still holds key centers in Ras Lanuf and that they also retook Misurata, a city of 600,000 people further west. And Debka also reported Gaddafi forces were still in the oil port of Mersa El Brega, well east of Ras Lanuf, though that town has been firmly under rebel control for days. Yet pro-government forces have apparently launched a major counteroffensive aimed at taking back all these towns, and the euphoric advance of the rebels on the road to Tripoli has been halted. Gaddafi’s forces have the advantage in experience, training, and combined arms, with both armor and air support, however minimal, from the fledgling Libyan air force. Yet Al Jazeera reported that there were many Rebel casualties, a good number from their own weapons, and they were young boys three weeks ago, now becoming men as they learn in the hardest way possible in the school of war.
Libyan opposition leaders still call for a “no fly zone” to help aid their cause, but Debka reported that Gaddafi has taken measures to defeat that should it ever come. At times the Debka analysis appears almost comical, however. They claimed, for instance, that Gaddafi has moved all his remaining aging Mig-23 and Su-22 fighters south near the Sahara where they will be “outside the range” of US carrier aircraft. Yet the Gaddafi’s SU-22 export version has a range of 590 nautical miles and no in flight refueling capability, and the old Mig-23s have a range of 970 nautical miles, while US carrier based F-16s have a range of 2500 nautical miles and unlimited in-flight refueling capability. Who does Debka’s research? Their analysis would seem to indicate the Libyans could easily sortie from their deep Saharan bases in the south and return home, while US carrier based planes in the Gulf of Sirte with about 2.5 to 5 times the flight range of their adversaries, could not make it to the Saharan bases and back? Nonsense. The distance from the sea to the southermost Libyan border is no more than 700-800 miles, well within F-16 strike range, yet well outside Su-22 strike range in the other direction. And should the US choose to intervene in the air they would not even have to take out the Libyan bases in the south or impose a nation wide no fly zone. All they would have to do is fly combat air patrols over the coastal roads leading west to Tripoli, and any pro-Gaddafi aircraft flying out of these Saharan bases would then have to face lethal and efficient US naval air patrols when they arrived at the coast--if they arrived at the coast. The US would see them coming well in advance and make short work of them if challenged. Enterprise could also be joined in due course by CV-77 (George Bush), which took on live ammunition from CV-Truman a week ago and is available on the US East coast. (Alas, the US government does not appear to have the will to use the considerable means at its disposal, so all of this may be a moot point in the end.)
Western reporters also flatly contradicted the Debka analysis, stating Misurata was still firmly in the anti-government camp but the situation remains very fluid. The live Libyan blog reported that as of 1am March 7: “Mohammed Ali, a member of the civil committee for Misurata affairs claimed rebels are in control of the area.” They stated that Gaddafi’s forces cannot hold positions they take inside the town for long, as the city of 600,000 is a hostile environment.
To the west, Libyan air force attacks have been made against advancing groups of rebelling fighters, and rebels claimed they shot down at least one plane. Al Jazeera reporter Tony Birtley, traveling with the resistance fighters, reported four air strikes but noted that Gaddafi's troops have retreated, pursued by rebel fighters still moving west. But the situation remained fluid on Sunday with rebel forces advancing west to Bin Jawad, where they were then ambushed by Gaddafi forces occupying residential homes in the town and forced to fall back on Ras Lanuf after stiffer pro-government resistance. The key fact is this: it was clear that the fighting had moved from Ras Lanuf to positions further west along the coastal road to Bin Jawad, where the Gaddafi forces have dug in to halt the advance west in Surt.
Noted Middle East specialist Professor Juan Cole reported: “The partisans of the liberation movement seem determined to go further and try to take the city of Sirt (Sirte, Surt) (pop. 135,000). The advantage here is that if they can conquer Sirt, they can link up with rebels who control Misurata (pop. 600,000), and so will control everything east of Tripoli. Since the eastern, working-class suburbs of Tripoli are not under control of the government, either, Qaddafi would be reduced to dominating only downtown Tripoli and some sparsely populated towns in the west.” Surt (Sirte), the birthplace of Gaddafi, may prove the most difficult test for the incipient rebellion, as it is home to a privileges class of many pro-Gaddafi families who have long benefited from his regime.
Heavy gunfire reported in Tripoli was supposed to have been the people there celebrating all these Gaddafi victories Debka has been reporting. Gaddafi himself also stated he still controls Benghazi and Tobruk, which puts him in the same league with the famous “Baghdad Bob,” the Iraqi spokesperson who claimed Baghdad was firmly under Saddam’s control when US Armored divisions were rolling through the city.
There was fighting again in Tobruk, but Gaddafi forces do not control that city. All this said, the lightly armed rebel forces that had been advancing west have apparently met determined pro-government resistance now, with Surt being the one stronghold that Gaddafi will now fight for to halt their advance. The action at Bin Jawad is a distant outpost to that city, which will prove the most difficult battle should the rebels be able to muster enough force to launch a concerted assault there.
What we have seen in all this fighting is that both sides have limited offensive capability. Gaddafi troops can fight their way into opposition towns, inflicting many civilian casualties, but the local population has been too numerous in places like Zawiya and Misurata for Gaddafi troops to hold their positions for very long. They are then forced to withdraw and regroup outside the city for another attack. (This is no “in and out tactic.” The rebel forces have moved quickly in light vehicles along the desert road through the much smaller towns of Mersa El Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, but here Gaddafi forces have been able to mount significant counterattacks and ambushes, and also harass them with desultory air strikes, as the local population is not great enough to create a truly hostile environment for them.
Elsewhere, the fighting on the coastal road continued from Ras Lanuf west, with the area still in dispute. Debka’s analysis claims the Libyan army still holds key centers in Ras Lanuf and that they also retook Misurata, a city of 600,000 people further west. And Debka also reported Gaddafi forces were still in the oil port of Mersa El Brega, well east of Ras Lanuf, though that town has been firmly under rebel control for days. Yet pro-government forces have apparently launched a major counteroffensive aimed at taking back all these towns, and the euphoric advance of the rebels on the road to Tripoli has been halted. Gaddafi’s forces have the advantage in experience, training, and combined arms, with both armor and air support, however minimal, from the fledgling Libyan air force. Yet Al Jazeera reported that there were many Rebel casualties, a good number from their own weapons, and they were young boys three weeks ago, now becoming men as they learn in the hardest way possible in the school of war.
Libyan opposition leaders still call for a “no fly zone” to help aid their cause, but Debka reported that Gaddafi has taken measures to defeat that should it ever come. At times the Debka analysis appears almost comical, however. They claimed, for instance, that Gaddafi has moved all his remaining aging Mig-23 and Su-22 fighters south near the Sahara where they will be “outside the range” of US carrier aircraft. Yet the Gaddafi’s SU-22 export version has a range of 590 nautical miles and no in flight refueling capability, and the old Mig-23s have a range of 970 nautical miles, while US carrier based F-16s have a range of 2500 nautical miles and unlimited in-flight refueling capability. Who does Debka’s research? Their analysis would seem to indicate the Libyans could easily sortie from their deep Saharan bases in the south and return home, while US carrier based planes in the Gulf of Sirte with about 2.5 to 5 times the flight range of their adversaries, could not make it to the Saharan bases and back? Nonsense. The distance from the sea to the southermost Libyan border is no more than 700-800 miles, well within F-16 strike range, yet well outside Su-22 strike range in the other direction. And should the US choose to intervene in the air they would not even have to take out the Libyan bases in the south or impose a nation wide no fly zone. All they would have to do is fly combat air patrols over the coastal roads leading west to Tripoli, and any pro-Gaddafi aircraft flying out of these Saharan bases would then have to face lethal and efficient US naval air patrols when they arrived at the coast--if they arrived at the coast. The US would see them coming well in advance and make short work of them if challenged. Enterprise could also be joined in due course by CV-77 (George Bush), which took on live ammunition from CV-Truman a week ago and is available on the US East coast. (Alas, the US government does not appear to have the will to use the considerable means at its disposal, so all of this may be a moot point in the end.)
Western reporters also flatly contradicted the Debka analysis, stating Misurata was still firmly in the anti-government camp but the situation remains very fluid. The live Libyan blog reported that as of 1am March 7: “Mohammed Ali, a member of the civil committee for Misurata affairs claimed rebels are in control of the area.” They stated that Gaddafi’s forces cannot hold positions they take inside the town for long, as the city of 600,000 is a hostile environment.
To the west, Libyan air force attacks have been made against advancing groups of rebelling fighters, and rebels claimed they shot down at least one plane. Al Jazeera reporter Tony Birtley, traveling with the resistance fighters, reported four air strikes but noted that Gaddafi's troops have retreated, pursued by rebel fighters still moving west. But the situation remained fluid on Sunday with rebel forces advancing west to Bin Jawad, where they were then ambushed by Gaddafi forces occupying residential homes in the town and forced to fall back on Ras Lanuf after stiffer pro-government resistance. The key fact is this: it was clear that the fighting had moved from Ras Lanuf to positions further west along the coastal road to Bin Jawad, where the Gaddafi forces have dug in to halt the advance west in Surt.
Noted Middle East specialist Professor Juan Cole reported: “The partisans of the liberation movement seem determined to go further and try to take the city of Sirt (Sirte, Surt) (pop. 135,000). The advantage here is that if they can conquer Sirt, they can link up with rebels who control Misurata (pop. 600,000), and so will control everything east of Tripoli. Since the eastern, working-class suburbs of Tripoli are not under control of the government, either, Qaddafi would be reduced to dominating only downtown Tripoli and some sparsely populated towns in the west.” Surt (Sirte), the birthplace of Gaddafi, may prove the most difficult test for the incipient rebellion, as it is home to a privileges class of many pro-Gaddafi families who have long benefited from his regime.
Heavy gunfire reported in Tripoli was supposed to have been the people there celebrating all these Gaddafi victories Debka has been reporting. Gaddafi himself also stated he still controls Benghazi and Tobruk, which puts him in the same league with the famous “Baghdad Bob,” the Iraqi spokesperson who claimed Baghdad was firmly under Saddam’s control when US Armored divisions were rolling through the city.
There was fighting again in Tobruk, but Gaddafi forces do not control that city. All this said, the lightly armed rebel forces that had been advancing west have apparently met determined pro-government resistance now, with Surt being the one stronghold that Gaddafi will now fight for to halt their advance. The action at Bin Jawad is a distant outpost to that city, which will prove the most difficult battle should the rebels be able to muster enough force to launch a concerted assault there.
What we have seen in all this fighting is that both sides have limited offensive capability. Gaddafi troops can fight their way into opposition towns, inflicting many civilian casualties, but the local population has been too numerous in places like Zawiya and Misurata for Gaddafi troops to hold their positions for very long. They are then forced to withdraw and regroup outside the city for another attack. (This is no “in and out tactic.” The rebel forces have moved quickly in light vehicles along the desert road through the much smaller towns of Mersa El Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, but here Gaddafi forces have been able to mount significant counterattacks and ambushes, and also harass them with desultory air strikes, as the local population is not great enough to create a truly hostile environment for them.
