03/23/11 - Far from petering out as Debka incorrectly reported yesterday, the Coalition air campaign is still in buildup phase as more air assets from Canada, Qatar, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands are now arriving on the scene. (Mirage 2000s from Qatar had to make a forced landing en-route due to bad weather and very high winds. 6 Mirages will contribute one sortie package from Qatar.) Ground support missions were flown from the USS Kearsarge (Harriers) against Gaddafi forces attacking Misurata, which has been under attack by Gaddafi tanks and artillery. Gaddafi Khamis and Saadi Brigade forces defending near Ajdabiya were also hit. Residents reported the artillery fire ceased after the air strike. Canadian F-16s and RAF Tornadoes flew support missions, and a package of 10 Italian F-16s and support aircraft flew SEAD patrols (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense). At least 48 aircraft were involved in the above mentioned activity. (Not “only 6 aircraft” as incorrectly reported by Debka). US forces fly tac ops at night, with French, British and other coalition forces flying by day, for round the clock operational tempo.
Khweldi and Sahban brigade units are reported to be mustering for an attack on Zintan, which “went green” in recent days and is now being targeted for the Gaddafi scorched earth tactics like those used against Zawiyah weeks ago. Expect Coalition air strikes there soon.
One US F-15 crashed due to engine failure yesterday, with both crew members safely rescued. No other Coalition aircraft have been lost or damaged, and no Libyan aircraft have flown from Gaddafi’s secret bases “in the south” since the campaign was initiated. The airspace over Libya is now designated a “Low Lethality Zone,” with Coalition aircraft patrolling unopposed, at will.
03/22/11 - It took just 12 French aircraft to halt the advance of Gaddafi’s ruthless “Khamis Brigade” on Benghazi. 4 Rafael C flew top cover air defense with 2 Rafael B Recon fighters picking out targets. The actual strikes were made by the last six planes, 2 Rafael Close Air Support fighters, 2 Mirage 2000-5 and 2 Mirage 2000Ds. The result was a mile long line of wrecked tanks, trucks, and other armored fighting vehicles. The column was virtually wiped out, its troops fleeing after the strike to positions held by the Saadi Brigade further south near Ajdabiya. The Brigade’s leader, Gaddafi’s son Khamis, was also reported to have died, though he was wounded by a kamikaze strike flown by the free Libyan air force last weekend when a brave pilot flew his damaged jet into the Gaddafi command and control compound in Tripoli. Khamis died of burn wounds suffered in that attack, (though Gaddafi’s government denies this report).
So much for the vaunted “elite Khamis Brigade,” its reign of terror against unarmed civilians is now largely over. This was just the leading edge of allied air power. It was followed by waves of F-15 and F-16 fighters from many nations, and Typhoon and Tornado fighter bombers from both Italy and the UK. Planes launched from NATO bases in France and Italy, as well as from CV Enterprise and the French carrier Charles De Gaulle. These aircraft took out the bulk of Gaddafi’s fixed air defense system assets, radars, sam missile sites, command and control facilities, and airfields. US B-2 stealth bombers also flew from their base in Missouri to make strikes against key facilities. The bombers flew deep into Libya to strike Gaddafi’s air fields at Sabha, Ghardabiya, and Mitiga, where the Israeli site Debka reported Gaddafi was hiding his planes “in the south” to avoid destruction. Bunker busters were used to take out all the hardened aircraft shelters at Ghardabiya.
Day three of the campaign involves the hunt for mobile SAM assets, where planes with radar seeking HARM missiles patrol waiting for the enemy to use its anti aircraft radar, then they use the radar signal itself to home in on the target. These sorties will be ongoing in the days, and probably weeks, ahead.
As I wrote earlier, the coalition does not have to patrol over all Libyan airspace. The zone is largely limited to the key coastal area, and the roads leading south through Sabha. (See Map) Thus in just a few days time Gaddafi lost his fledgling air force, his “Khamis Brigade” and most of his air defense system. There were no more than 1500 men assigned to Gaddafi’s eastern campaign against Benghazi. These are now outnumbered by at least 6000 lightly armed rebels in that sector. But Gaddafi’s forces still have Grad missiles and other hand held heavy weapons at their disposal, and the rebels are not really an organized fighting force. Still, it will soon become clear to the remaining Saadi Brigade units that they are fighting a lost cause on Gaddafi’s behalf now that Allied air power will insure they have little or no offensive capability.
So this is what can be accomplished with groups of just six to twelve aircraft. The major SEAD strikes being concluded, coalition will now scale its activity to routine patrol operations over the coastal region, with occasional strike sorties as the situation warrants. Groups of six F-16, Mirage and Rafael fighters will alternate patrols on a routine daily basis, while other groups engage in ground strikes against Gaddafi forces still attacking civilian locations. This is par for the course. Again, Debka wrongly characterizes this as a failure of the No Fly Zone, stating it “ran out of steam” after the Tomahawk missile strikes ended. I’m not sure who makes these assessments, but they certainly do not understand military operations. Debka believes the limited No Fly Zone will allow Gaddafi to fly his air force at will now. What air force? Not a single Libyan Air Force plane has flown in the last three days, and any that survived the bombing and managed to get airborne would be quickly dispatched by coalition fighters.
If you cannot use your assets, you may as well not have them. The No Fly Zone has decisively neutralized Gaddafi’s air force, (which was fairly ineffective in the first place), and completely removed his offensive capability against Benghazi. The revolution now has the time it needs to consolidate, arm itself, improve its organization and deal with Gaddafi’s remaining loyalist troops and mercenaries. Time is in their favor. They control the entire eastern section of the country, and Gaddafi can only hold ground where he can deploy snipers, armed security forces and his remaining tanks to suppress popular uprising. The French have shown an eagerness to take out Gaddafi’s armor when he tries to use it in force. The intervention has therefore proved decisive, though it may take the revolution some time before it can match and defeat Gaddafi’s remaining loyalist troops. Yet now they have that time.
Gaddafi’s only choice is to pull a Saddam and find a trench to hide in somewhere, then try to direct a lingering guerilla war against the revolution government that replaces him. This is an odd choice considering that he could instead announce his capitulation and probably receive guarantees of safe passage out of the country with his billions. But I think the threat of prosecution in the world court leads him to choose his “martyer’s death” instead of an ignominious trial and hanging like Saddam.
03/21/11 - Operation "Odyssey Dawn begins. The West found its teeth when French fighters targeted Gaddafi forces near Benghazi after their unsuccessful bid to enter the city. The strike knocked out numerous AFVs on the road outside the city. Al Jazeera, with observers on the scene reported: “the road between Benghazi and Ajdabiya was littered with the ‘burnout wreckage of what was Gaddafi's armor and tanks’, destroyed in air raids by coalition forces.” This strike, presumably made by French air force units, was followed by 112 cruise missiles fired from US and UK naval units to strike Gaddafi’s air defense systems and open the way for Western aircraft to patrol the skies. The Gaddafi main command and control center, a three story building in Tripoli, was targeted and destroyed. B-2 Stealth bombers also delivered strikes against Gaddafi air fields. US analysts stated the strikes “largely destroyed” Gaddafi’s air defense system. So much for the Debka claim, over a week ago, that Gaddafi had “taken precautions” to foil any Western attack by moving his air forces out of range to fields in the south of Libya. Debka is now also reporting that Gaddafi is hiding all his best anti aircraft missiles in the south as well. I guess, since any deployment and use of his remaining assets would expose them to certain destruction, hiding out is the only option left to Gaddafi. Note to Debka: Western air power has a global reach. It can be brought to bear anywhere “in the south” of Libya, and cannot be effectively opposed by any weapon in Gaddafi’s arsenal. If he chooses to use them, he will lose them. End of story.
Gaddafi, ever defiant, compared the attack to a crusading Christian army invading Libya, and said he would “open the depots” to arm his loyal people for a long all out war for Libya. Be careful what you wish for...you may get it. Gaddafi also declared the whole Mediterranean region a war zone, threatening ship traffic, and digging the trench of international ill will towards his regime just a little deeper. Libyan TV broadcast file footage of their armed forces and of crowds backing Gaddafi from days of yore.
While US and other coalition governments have stated Gaddafi has to go, the campaign is not explicitly designed to topple his regime. It’s primary objective is to protect the nascent formation of a free Libyan state and halt Gaddafi’s military offensive against his own people. The burden of proof, where control of Libya is concerned, lies on Gaddafi. The revolution merely has to survive, and it can now prevent Gaddafi military forces from taking their remaining cities. Gaddafi’s army has been trumped by Western air power. It is clear now that the sortie of the Saadi and Khamis Brigades to the east will certainly fail. US Admiral Michael Mullen summed things up this way: “Gaddafi's forces "are no longer marching on Benghazi." President Obama, who finally found his backbone over this issue, has stated that Gaddafi forces must also withdraw from Ajdabiya, Az Zuwiyah and Misurata. Expect more strikes on Gaddafi’s armor in those regions to make the point.
The question now is this--how loyal are Gaddafi’s remaining army units and military cadres? Are they willing to carry on the war under the pounding they will surely take from the combined military might of seven nations? Or will they realize Gaddafi’s day has come and gone, and join the rebellion to forge a new Libya.
03/19/11 - Gaddafi forces made a last minute dash for Benghazi today, doing exactly what I thought they would do. Army units pushed into the city under cover of tank and mortar fire. At least one air strike was reported, with Al Jazeerah showing images of a plane shot down even while the Libyan foreign minister was wagging his gums at the UN stating Libya was in full compliance with the cease fire.Resistance fighters in Benghazi captured at least 1 enemy tank trying to enter the city, with reports that three other tanks were also captured and Gaddafi forces were pushed back. The Libyan army knows that if it can enter the city and establish firm positions in built up areas, then Western air strikes will be much more difficult. Fierce fighting continued for in Misurata as well.
The question now is this--how loyal are Gaddafi’s remaining army units and military cadres? Are they willing to carry on the war under the pounding they will surely take from the combined military might of seven nations? Or will they realize Gaddafi’s day has come and gone, and join the rebellion to forge a new Libya.
03/19/11 - Gaddafi forces made a last minute dash for Benghazi today, doing exactly what I thought they would do. Army units pushed into the city under cover of tank and mortar fire. At least one air strike was reported, with Al Jazeerah showing images of a plane shot down even while the Libyan foreign minister was wagging his gums at the UN stating Libya was in full compliance with the cease fire.Resistance fighters in Benghazi captured at least 1 enemy tank trying to enter the city, with reports that three other tanks were also captured and Gaddafi forces were pushed back. The Libyan army knows that if it can enter the city and establish firm positions in built up areas, then Western air strikes will be much more difficult. Fierce fighting continued for in Misurata as well.
France is reportedly flying recon missions over Libya prior to launching ground attacks to make the point that the international community will enforce its edicts. But as of this writing no Western air strikes have been reported. While Gaddafi forces have reached the outskirts of the city, they have not yet cleared and secured Ajdabiya, or ant town north to Benghazi along the main roads. Their bid is to beat the clock and push into Benghazi before decisive Western air power can destroy the army’s heavy weapons on the ground.
Gaddafi has also reportedly sent messages to France and the UK telling them they will “regret” their interference in Libyan internal affairs. We shall see who has regrets when this is all over.
