The West Finds its Teeth

03/23/11 - Far from petering out as Debka incorrectly reported yesterday, the Coalition air campaign is still in buildup phase as more air assets from Canada, Qatar, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands are now arriving on the scene. (Mirage 2000s from Qatar had to make a forced landing en-route due to bad weather and very high winds. 6 Mirages will contribute one sortie package from Qatar.) Ground support missions were flown from the USS Kearsarge (Harriers) against Gaddafi forces attacking Misurata, which has been under attack by Gaddafi tanks and artillery. Gaddafi Khamis and Saadi Brigade forces defending near Ajdabiya were also hit. Residents reported the artillery fire ceased after the air strike. Canadian F-16s and RAF Tornadoes flew support missions, and a package of 10 Italian F-16s and support aircraft flew SEAD patrols (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense). At least 48 aircraft were involved in the above mentioned activity. (Not “only 6 aircraft” as incorrectly reported by Debka). US forces fly tac ops at night, with French, British and other coalition forces flying by day, for round the clock operational tempo.

Khweldi and Sahban brigade units are reported to be mustering for an attack on Zintan, which “went green” in recent days and is now being targeted for the Gaddafi scorched earth tactics like those used against Zawiyah weeks ago. Expect Coalition air strikes there soon.

One US F-15 crashed due to engine failure yesterday, with both crew members safely rescued. No other Coalition aircraft have been lost or damaged, and no Libyan aircraft have flown from Gaddafi’s secret bases “in the south” since the campaign was initiated. The airspace over Libya is now designated a “Low Lethality Zone,” with Coalition aircraft patrolling unopposed, at will.

03/22/11 - It took just 12 French aircraft to halt the advance of Gaddafi’s ruthless “Khamis Brigade” on Benghazi. 4 Rafael C flew top cover air defense  with 2 Rafael B Recon fighters picking out targets. The actual strikes were made by the last six planes, 2 Rafael Close Air Support fighters, 2 Mirage 2000-5 and 2 Mirage 2000Ds. The result was a mile long line of wrecked tanks, trucks, and other armored fighting vehicles. The column was virtually wiped out, its troops fleeing after the strike to positions held by the Saadi Brigade further south near Ajdabiya. The Brigade’s leader, Gaddafi’s son Khamis, was also reported to have died, though he was wounded by a kamikaze strike flown by the free Libyan air force last weekend when a brave pilot flew his damaged jet into the Gaddafi command and control compound in Tripoli. Khamis died of burn wounds suffered in that attack, (though Gaddafi’s government denies this report).

So much for the vaunted “elite Khamis Brigade,” its reign of terror against unarmed civilians is now largely over. This was just the leading edge of allied air power. It was followed by waves of F-15 and F-16 fighters from many nations, and Typhoon and Tornado fighter bombers from both Italy and the UK.  Planes launched from NATO bases in France and Italy, as well as from CV Enterprise and the French carrier Charles De Gaulle. These aircraft took out the bulk of Gaddafi’s fixed air defense system assets, radars, sam missile sites, command and control facilities, and airfields. US B-2 stealth bombers also flew from their base in Missouri to make strikes against key facilities. The bombers flew deep into Libya to strike Gaddafi’s air fields at Sabha, Ghardabiya, and Mitiga, where the Israeli site Debka reported Gaddafi was hiding his planes “in the south” to avoid destruction. Bunker busters were used to take out all the hardened aircraft shelters at Ghardabiya.

Day three of the campaign involves the hunt for mobile SAM assets, where planes with radar seeking HARM missiles patrol waiting for the enemy to use its anti aircraft radar, then they use the radar signal itself to home in on the target. These sorties will be ongoing in the days, and probably weeks, ahead.

As I wrote earlier, the coalition does not have to patrol over all Libyan airspace. The zone is largely limited to the key coastal area, and the roads leading south through Sabha. (See Map) Thus in just a few days time Gaddafi lost his fledgling air force, his “Khamis Brigade” and most of his air defense system. There were no more than 1500 men assigned to Gaddafi’s eastern campaign against Benghazi. These are now outnumbered by at least 6000 lightly armed rebels in that sector. But Gaddafi’s forces still have Grad missiles and other hand held heavy weapons at their disposal, and the rebels are not really an organized fighting force. Still, it will soon become clear to the remaining Saadi Brigade units that they are fighting a lost cause on Gaddafi’s behalf now that Allied air power will insure they have little or no offensive capability.

So this is what can be accomplished with groups of just six to twelve aircraft. The major SEAD strikes being concluded, coalition will now scale  its activity to routine patrol operations over the coastal region, with occasional strike sorties as the situation warrants. Groups of six F-16, Mirage and Rafael fighters will alternate patrols on a routine daily basis, while other groups engage in ground strikes against Gaddafi forces still attacking civilian locations. This is par for the course. Again, Debka wrongly characterizes this as a failure of the No Fly Zone, stating it “ran out of steam” after the Tomahawk missile strikes ended. I’m not sure who makes these assessments, but they certainly do not understand military operations. Debka believes the limited No Fly Zone will allow Gaddafi to fly his air force at will now. What air force? Not a single Libyan Air Force plane has flown in the last three days, and any that survived the bombing and managed to get airborne would be quickly dispatched by coalition fighters.

If you cannot use your assets, you may as well not have them. The No Fly Zone has decisively neutralized Gaddafi’s air force, (which was fairly ineffective in the first place), and completely removed his offensive capability against Benghazi. The revolution now has the time it needs to consolidate, arm itself, improve its organization and deal with Gaddafi’s remaining loyalist troops and mercenaries. Time is in their favor. They control the entire eastern section of the country, and Gaddafi can only hold ground where he can deploy snipers,  armed security forces and his remaining tanks to suppress popular uprising. The French have shown an eagerness to take out Gaddafi’s armor when he tries to use it in force. The intervention has therefore proved decisive, though it may take the revolution some time before it can match and defeat Gaddafi’s remaining loyalist troops. Yet now they have that time.

Gaddafi’s only choice is to pull a Saddam and find a trench to hide in somewhere, then try to direct a lingering guerilla war against the revolution government that replaces him. This is an odd choice considering that he could instead announce his capitulation and probably receive guarantees of safe passage out of the country with his billions. But I think the threat of prosecution in the world court leads him to choose his “martyer’s death” instead of an ignominious trial and hanging like Saddam.

03/21/11 - Operation "Odyssey Dawn begins. The West found its teeth when French fighters targeted Gaddafi forces near Benghazi after their unsuccessful bid to enter the city. The strike knocked out numerous AFVs on the road outside the city.  Al Jazeera, with observers on the scene reported:  “the road between Benghazi and Ajdabiya was littered with the ‘burnout wreckage of what was Gaddafi's armor and tanks’, destroyed in air raids by coalition forces.” This strike, presumably made by French air force units, was followed by 112 cruise missiles fired from US and UK naval units to strike Gaddafi’s air defense systems and open the way for Western aircraft to patrol the skies. The Gaddafi main command and control center, a three story building in Tripoli, was targeted and destroyed. B-2 Stealth bombers also delivered strikes against Gaddafi air fields. US analysts stated the strikes “largely destroyed” Gaddafi’s air defense system. So much for the Debka claim, over a week ago, that Gaddafi had “taken precautions” to foil any Western attack by moving his air forces out of range to fields in the south of Libya.  Debka is now also reporting that Gaddafi is hiding all his best anti aircraft missiles in the south as well. I guess, since any deployment and use of his remaining assets would expose them to certain destruction, hiding out is the only option left to Gaddafi. Note to Debka: Western air power has a global reach. It can be brought to bear anywhere “in the south” of Libya, and cannot be effectively opposed by any weapon in Gaddafi’s arsenal. If he chooses to use them, he will lose them. End of story.

Gaddafi, ever defiant, compared the attack to a crusading Christian army invading Libya, and  said he would “open the depots” to arm his loyal people for a long all out war for Libya. Be careful what you wish for...you may get it.  Gaddafi also declared the whole Mediterranean region a war zone, threatening ship traffic, and digging the trench of international ill will towards his regime just a little deeper. Libyan TV broadcast file footage of their armed forces and of crowds backing Gaddafi from days of yore.

While US and other coalition governments have stated Gaddafi has to go, the campaign is not explicitly designed to topple his regime. It’s primary objective is to protect the nascent formation of a free Libyan state and halt Gaddafi’s military offensive against his own people. The burden of proof, where control of Libya is concerned, lies on Gaddafi. The revolution merely has to survive, and it can now prevent Gaddafi military forces from taking their remaining cities. Gaddafi’s army has been trumped by Western air power. It is clear now that the sortie of the Saadi and Khamis Brigades to the east will certainly fail. US Admiral Michael Mullen summed things up this way: “Gaddafi's forces "are no longer marching on Benghazi." President Obama, who finally found his backbone over this issue, has stated that Gaddafi forces must also withdraw from Ajdabiya, Az Zuwiyah and Misurata. Expect more strikes on Gaddafi’s armor in those regions to make the point.

The question now is this--how loyal are Gaddafi’s remaining army units and military cadres? Are they willing to carry on the war under the pounding they will surely take from the combined military might of seven nations? Or will they realize Gaddafi’s day has come and gone, and join the rebellion to forge a  new Libya.

03/19/11 - Gaddafi forces made a last minute dash for Benghazi today, doing exactly what I thought they would do. Army units pushed into the city under cover of tank and mortar fire. At least one air strike was reported, with Al Jazeerah showing images of a plane shot down even while the Libyan foreign minister was wagging his gums at the UN stating Libya was in full compliance with the cease fire.Resistance fighters in Benghazi captured at least 1 enemy tank trying to enter the city, with reports that three other tanks were also captured and Gaddafi forces were pushed back. The Libyan army knows that if it can enter the city and establish firm positions in built up areas, then Western air strikes will be much more difficult. Fierce fighting continued for in Misurata as well.

France is reportedly flying recon missions over Libya prior to launching ground attacks to make the point that the international community will enforce its edicts. But as of this writing no Western air strikes have been reported. While Gaddafi forces have reached the outskirts of the city, they have not yet cleared and secured Ajdabiya, or ant town north to Benghazi along the main roads. Their bid is to beat the clock and push into Benghazi before decisive Western air power can destroy the army’s heavy weapons on the ground.

Gaddafi has also reportedly sent messages to France and the UK telling them they will “regret” their interference in Libyan internal affairs. We shall see who has regrets when this is all over.

Cease Fire?

03/18/11 - Gaddafi’s Libyan government declared an immediate cease fire, abandoning its rabid dog talk of “no mercy” for dissidents and reprisals against civilian targets in the Med, and stating instead: “We decided on an immediate ceasefire and on an immediate stop to all military operations... Libya takes great interest in protecting civilians."   While this was said, Gaddafi forces continued attacking civilian targets. Yes, with tanks and armored carriers blasting their way into civilian occupied cities and firing indiscriminately at anyone who moved...with snipers and commandos posted on buildings and breaking into homes in the dead of night to kidnap civilians suspected of siding with the opposition. Gaddafi is a man who would only respond to one thing--force. In this case, just as I suspected and wrote of in these posts, the mere declaration of the No Fly Zone and intimation that we would begin hitting targets, including his precious Khamis and Saadi Brigades, convinced him to abandon his “line of death” rhetoric and become very peace loving--overnight.

Don’t believe it. Gaddafi is playing for time. He does not want his army destroyed by Western Air power, so he will instead hope to position it outside the last rebel stronghold of Benghazi under the cover of a “cease fire” and then use special ops and secret police units in the dark of night to launch in and out raids on the city that he can blame on “armed madmen.” Evil loves darkness. This, too, is a tactic that will fail. He will find the opposition in Benghazi armed and ready for his thugs, should they appear.

Faced with the prospect of air strikes within hours, as air units from Britain, France, Canada, Norway, the US and many Gulf Arab nations began to muster, Gaddafi folded his hand--game over. The resistance now has the best fighting air force units in the world available to provide cover, and even Gaddafi’s advantage on the ground with tanks and heavy artillery can be quickly and completely neutralized by this power.

This is what the West, and the UN,  should have done weeks ago, and it may be a decisive moment in the troubled history of this region.

03/17/11 - Lots of tough talk from both sides and in the international community, where hints of a no-fly zone, or something more, continued to circulate in the news. The talk, a month in the making, finally became action when the UN authorized a No Fly Zone over Libya, and “all necessary measures” to protect civilians.  A defiant Gaddafi said his army would show “no mercy” to the citizens of Benghazi, and stated he would launch another “final battle” for Misurata to cleans it from bands of roving madmen holding the population hostage.  His forces lost at least 80 men yesterday and were repulsed for a fourth time in that effort. Meanwhile, the Saadi Brigade in the east has been heavily reinforced with elements of the veteran Khamis Brigade, fresh from its pogrom at Az Zawiyah.  Should he persist and attempt to attack Benghazi, “all necessary measures” could quickly become direct strikes against his armored units.

Gaddafi was no happy: “This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too...We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace."  His pledge to “get crazy” is perhaps one of the great understatements of our day.

The Military situation has now dramatically changed. It was clear to me days ago that the single Saadi Brigade (not to be confused with Saudi Arabia in any way) was inadequate to the task that lay before it in Cyrenacia. Gaddafi has now brought in his most ruthless fighters, and tribal forces, to try and finish the job before the international community can put teeth behind its words. He still has two choices--a direct attack on Benghazi or a lightning jab across the desert road, Rommel style, aimed at Tobruk to isolate the rebellion in Cyrenacia. The reinforced eastern command now has the forces to consider  both options, and they have been taking on loads of supplies before launching this last planned stage of their counteroffensive.  The Western No Fly Zone will apply to his flights of mercenaries from Sudan, Chad and other Central African locations, so his army must now fight with the means it presently has.

The No Fly Zone removes Gaddafi’s air force from the battle, which was only marginally effective in the fighting to date, (more a psychological weapon than anything else), but the threat of further action against Gaddafi’s ground units is a whole new matter. The Western air forces involved, from the US, France, the UK, Kuwait and the UAE, are highly experienced and capable forces. If the member states signing on to this resolution find their backbone they can stop Gaddafi’s army completely, using air power alone, well before it reaches either Benghazi or Tobruk.. Gaddafi would do well to remember the “highway of death” as Saddam’s army tried to flee from Kuwait. Western air force units can wreak destruction and havoc on his armored columns in the open desert terrain. If the UN words are truly backed by action, this is a “game over” for Gaddafi’s military. This would be the best possible outcome, and likely lead to a cease fire with the UN brokering the peace. Gaddafi’s objective now must be to close with his enemies on the ground, so that the Western advantage of air power is more difficult to use in urban areas inhabited by civilians.

The US must know exactly what is happening on the ground. They undoubtedly have been looking in on things with high resolution satellite imagery and know the disposition and strength of Gaddafi forces. CV Enterprise, which transited the Suez for a rendezvous in the North Arabian Sea days ago, has now reversed course and returned to the Red Sea. This carrier alone could have completely halted the Saadi Brigade along the exposed open coastal road, many days ago, but the Obama administration was not able to find a backbone over this issue, and many other  issues in this historic uprising.

Reluctant to act on on its own, the US sought some international consensus, and was upstaged by France, who recognized the Libyan Interim Council in Benghazi and called for a no fly zone last week. Yet it was not until the Arab League seconded that call that the US really took notice. Obama follows, rather than leads. He seeks consensus where he should be defining a decisive stand against Gaddafi and in favor of the Libyan Revolution. Decisive action now could win the “hearts and minds” of a whole generation of young Arab people, struggling for human rights, freedom and democracy. But the US equivocated, talked, ruminated, parsed words, while Gaddafi, took decisive action on his front. Now, with Gaddafi forces in a position to strike either Tobruk or Benghazi, the US is late to the party.  Will the application of Western Air power be enough to back the dictator down? Or will Gaddafi fight like a cornered tiger and use the full weight of his military against all comers.

While Gaddafi has hinted that Benghazi will “fall without a fight,” let us add that to the realm of wishful thinking on his part. The resistance cannot truly match the Libyan army, but they will undoubtedly fight on, as they fight today in Misurata. Action still continues today around Ajdabiya, though Gaddafi forces are still over 100 miles south of Benghazi. Air strikes were also reported near Benghazi, with no damage reported. It is likely that we will soon see the fledgling Libyan air force grounded, removing at least one weapon at Gaddafi’s disposal.

The Struggle Continues

03/16/11 - Mustafa Gheiriani, a rebel spokesman in Benghazi characterized the situation today quite clearly. "The fighting is fierce. His supply lines are stretched so he can't push on from Ajdabiyah. We've got some surprises in store. We're going to fight on and we're going to win."  The war of words was answered by Gadaffi’s son, who claimed the war was 48 hours from a successful conclusion. Then came the surprises.

Opposition web sites reported that the resistance has been able to fly Mig-23 aircraft and at least one helicopter and attack Gaddafi government naval vessels off the coast of Ajdabiya, sinking two ships and damaging a third. Reuters quickly echoed the story. The “Free Libyan Air Force” also bombed Saadi Brigade tanks near Ajdabiya and reportedly struck a government airfield near Surt as well. Another surprise from the rebel forces who appear to be slowly organizing their military arm in the face of heavy pressure from Gaddafi’s forces. The rebels also seized an oil tanker with 25,000 tons of fuel. Another surprise.

There are conflicting reports on the status of Ajdabiya, with both sides still claiming control, and reinforcements are on the way from Benghazi.  CNN reporters traveling with Gaddafi forces claim that the brigade is massing outside the town, with substantial ammunition and supplies, which may have been replenished from a nearby ammo depot. Water and fuel are being mustered for the fighting ahead. And there is still low level fighting in Mersa El Brega, well behind Saadi Brigade lines.

In the west, yet another attempt to take Misurata has now apparently failed when opposition fighters stopped Gaddafi army units on three fronts and even captured at least two tanks in the fighting. The resistance there is but a shadow of what the army will find if it tries to take Benghazi. The Saadi Brigade would be ill advised to plan an attack on that city. They have proven they have the firepower and skill to push into rebel held towns, but the brigade has had considerable trouble holding and securing the ground it takes, with rebel infiltrations behind their lines and fighting erupting again in cities the government claimed they took days ago. This would be the case should the brigade move north into Cyrenacia, where rebel forces could infiltrate and cut the road south to Ajdabiya with relative ease.

It is clear that Gaddafi forces must decisively take, clear and secure Ajdabiya as a base for further operations. That has not yet been accomplished, but should they succeed they must then decide whether to advance on Benghazi or race for Tobruk to cut off support for the rebellion that might come from Egypt and isolate the revolution in Cyrenacia.

This is all going to take much longer than 48 hours, and we may see more rebel “surprises” in the hours and days ahead.

In Bahrain, the Sunni king has taken a leaf from Gaddafi’s book in his bid to crush opposition--bring in mercenaries. Hundreds of foreign troops, mostly from Saudi Arabia, have entered the island nation and did what local security forces were loathe to do--they fired on civilians in a bloody crackdown, wuth hundreds wounded and many killed. The invasion has heightened ethnic Sunni-Shia tensions throughout the region.

03/15/11- As troops from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf Cooperation Council forces rush into Bahrain in American made tanks and APCs, to help the Sunni Kingdom put down a popular Shia revolt, the very same parties condemn Gaddafi’s use of the military against the Libyan people. The Middle East certainly gets confusing, doesn’t it? France and the UK now both support a No Fly Zone, while the US remains indecisive as Obama turns his attention to Japan.

Today Gaddafi appears to have made the decision to fight for Ajdabiya, being unwilling to bypass such a hard rebel nugget of resistance astride the vital road back to Surt and Tripoli. Both bombs and leaflets urging the population there to starve out the rebels in their midst were used in the initial effort to soften Ajdabiya up.  Meanwhile, Khamis Brigade forces in the west also claimed nominal control of Zuwarah near the Tunisian border, and are now going house to house with lists of names to round up suspected dissidents. Gaddafi played his string of small victories for all it is worth, offering the rebels in the east a cease fire and amnesty. He was answered by a 2000 strong force of rebels led by ex-Army commandos who infiltrated back into Mersa El Brega and now control a large segment of the residential district there, behind Gaddafi’s main column!

The action shows the difficulty faced by Gaddafi and his small army of mercenaries and loyalists. He has the firepower to blast his way into towns and take nominal control over them, but he does not have the troops to garrison, hold and secure the ground, particularly in the larger cities, where a low lever guerrilla resistance is now replacing the direct confrontation in street fighting. The rebels will not give up as easily as he hopes. Mersa El Brega is a town of only 4600 people with little built up area, yet Gaddafi’s troops have been unable to decisively secure that hamlet as they advance on Ajdabiya. Good luck should they ever reach Benghazi, a city of 800,000 people all decidedly hostile to Gadaffi’s regime.

If Az Zawiya and Misurata are any template for what may occur, Gadaffi will have hard fighting in Benghazi, and there will be much destruction.  In Misurata the Colonel has come up with a novel approach, Not only is electricity, phone and internet cut off, but now he has turned off the water for the 300,000 there. You can last only a week or two without water, so goes the logic in his demented mind.

Perhaps we should look over History’s shoulder at the Iran Iraq war where Iranian Shia youth launched human wave banzai charges against Saddam’s armor for 7 years before they sued for peace. There is no shortage of fervor and zeal among Libya’s rebel forces. Just a shortage of arms, ammunition and military know-how. But the recent defeats they have suffered will be their teacher. Don’t write off the rebel resistance any time soon. They are learning, organizing, toughening up under Gaddafi’s fire.

The coming hours and days will see the important battle for Ajdabiya play out as Japan’s nuclear reactors continue careening towards full meltdown. No shortage of drama in the news these days.

03/14/11 - How likely was the Libyan rebellion to roll westward to Tripoli from its strongholds in the east? Very unlikely. In spite of his little victories on the coast, how likely is Gaddafi to quickly storm Benghazi and topple the rebellion? Very unlikely, at least not with the forces he has deployed to the eastern campaign at this time. Therein lies the heart of this story.

Popular uprisings are sustained by the people in massive numbers within heavily populated urban centers. The road to Tripoli is long and thin, and blocked by a major bastion of Gaddafi support in the city of Surt. The rebellion was foolish to try and migrate west along this road to liberate Tripoli. If that is to happen it will have to come from the population within Tripoli itself. The rebellion in the east was successful because it originated in Libya’s second most populous city, Benghazi, and then rippled out to regional towns and cities until all of Cyrenacia was in the anti-Gaddafi camp. This quickly led to defections within army units stationed there, and the rebels were able to get hold of a few heavy weapons to bolster their confidence.

But the haphazard and badly disorganized rush to the west along the desert roads was ill advised, from a military standpoint, and really doomed to failure from its inception. It was stopped at Bin Jawad by the Gaddafi Saadi Brigade, which has now rolled the rebels back through Mersa El Brega to the gateway city of Ajdabiya. (Population 200,000) This city, a small but densely built up fist of opposition, will now present Gaddafi’s eastern campaigners with a thorny problem. ABC news reports it is defended by one of Gaddafi’s ex-ministers, with his head to lose should he be captured. “General Abdel Fatah Yunis, who resigned as interior minister and joined the revolt when rebels rose up against Mr Gaddafi in mid-February, said his troops would defend the strategic town of Ajdabiya at all costs. "War is a matter of advance and tactical withdrawal," the white-haired general told reporters at a hotel in Benghazi, just hours after his forces abandoned Brega under heavy fire. "And even if our forces have withdrawn tactically a few kilometers, that means nothing in military terms, especially when you are fighting in territory that is semi-desert. There is not a lot of value to this land," he said.

If not taken, the city will sit astride the Saadi Brigade’s lines of communications back to Surt, and make an advance further east inadvisable. Yet to take this place Gaddafi forces may have to engage in some heavy urban fighting against determined resistance fighters who know that to lose is to lose everything. In such conditions Gaddafi’s advantage of air power and armor is less effective than it has been in the relatively open terrain fought for and gained last week by his forces.

Militarily, the rebel withdrawal  to this position was exactly what they should have done. Gaddafi must now fight for this city, as he did in Az Zawiya, or he must invest it and bypass it for ground further east. Neither choice is very promising for him. Bloody fighting in Adjabiya could put the story back in the headlines, as news teams will inevitably become weary of picking through the rubble of Japanese coastal cities for something more dynamic. It also buys time for the West to find a backbone, or even the Arab league to formulate some plan to support Benghazi. Yet to bypass Ajdabiya, Gaddafi will have to split his Brigade in two, and the troops left behind will have to be strong enough to impose and hold a siege there while the second column, now much weaker, advances into territory that is completely hostile to the Gaddafi regime. In my opinion this is a task beyond the capabilities of the single brigade assigned to the eastern campaign at this time. It will have to be strongly reinforced to proceed into Cyrenacia with any chance of snuffing out the rebellion. Ahead lies the large city of Benghazi, a battle ten times the size of the one that awaits Gaddafi at Ajdabiya.

Over the weekend Israeli site Debka posted two articles of interest. One claimed Syria’s Assad has sent arms and munitions by sea to re-fuel Gaddafi’s forces, the other that the rebels were beginning to flee from Benghazi. They seem to feel that, bolstered by his string of small victories between Bin Jawad and Mersa El Brega, Gaddafi can now just roll on into Benghazi and storm the place. But another Gaddafi attack on Misurata failed again this weekend, leaving that strategic western city still in the hands of the revolution. If the Debka story is confirmed, it also points out the weakness inherent in Gaddafi’s military, which now relies on outside arms shipments and imported mercenaries to sustain its bite. In my opinion Debka’s reporting is far to optimistic on Gaddafi’s behalf.

The little dictator now has his real work cut out for him. He must take or bypass Ajdabiya , then move another 200 kilometers to Benghazi and fight the heart of the rebellion there successfully and decisively if he is to win. I do not see that he can accomplish this easily, and we are likely to see a much longer struggle now that the “war” has come to ground strongly held by the rebellion. Gaddafi would be better advised to focus on taking Ajdabiya with the resources at hand, and then knife across the desert roads, taking the right hand fork to Tobruk as Rommel did, then fight for Tobruk. This would effectively isolate the rebellion in Cyrenacia. If he could also retake Misurata, he would then control enough territory to sustain his regime, and could basically ignore the rebellion indefinitely though this means he must settle for riding roughshod over only half of Libya for the foreseeable future.  He should not fight for Benghazi.

As for the No Fly Zone, in my opinion it is much ado about nothing, and will stand merely as a symbol of Western or Arab League support for the rebellion if ever declared and enforced. Gaddafi is probably flying no more than ten to twelve aircraft on any consistent basis, old Mig 23s, a few Su-22s and one Mirage. (He has more planes in inventory but most are not air worthy). As I have stated before, the burden of proof where control of Libya is concerned, lies firmly with Gaddafi. The rebels only have to be stubborn and resist by whatever means they have. The road ahead for Gaddafi remains long and difficult, and time favors the rebellion as it has been gaining more legitimacy and recognition from European and Arab states.

History Will Remember

03/12/11 - As the world was riveted by scenes of horror and utter destruction in Japan, the drama playing out on the coast of Libya was swept from the news bars. Libyan resistance fighters lost their grip on Mersa El Brega Saturday, continuing to withdraw through Adjabiya. Reports are that they are running low on ammunition and the weight of Gaddafi’s air power and armor is clearly turning the tide of the battle against them.

Strategically, the rebel advance was fueled by the zeal and fervor of the youthful fighters more than anything else, but was not a wise military maneuver. The lightly armed rebel partisans advance in pickup trucks and SUVs, small, inexperienced groups of young men exposed on the wide desert plains and dusty open roads. They have little real offensive capability if opposed by a trained military with armor and air cover, and the isolated towns along the road from Brega to Surt provide them little fodder for defense. The rebel advantage only truly exists in the larger cities, where the urban environment makes deployment and use of Gaddafi’s key assets (air power and armor) much more difficult, both in practical terms and public relations terms. His forces fought for two weeks to take Az Zawiya, wreaking wanton destruction there, and are now busy covering up the damage to hide the atrocities they unleashed on the Libyan people.

This revolution is different from that in Egypt because the so called “Libyan” army, infused with mercenary fighters from Sudan and Central Africa, (purchased by Gaddafi’s ill gotten billions), have no qualms about killing Libyan citizens. Gaddafi and his sons have tried to characterize this as a civil war fomented by outside terrorists who are holding the rebel held towns hostage. Nothing could be farther from the truth. This is not a civil war. There is no significant segment of the Libyan population supporting Gaddafi’s regime. His rule is extended through bribes, fear, oppression and cold hard cash. What we are watching is a war of oppression unleashed by a ruthless dictator on the Libyan people, not two opposing segments of the Libyan population vying for control. It’s Gaddafi and his thuggish security forces and mercenaries vs the people of Libya. Only in Surt, where Gaddafi has tribal roots well watered by his money and favor, will he enjoy any real popular support. All the rest he pays for, or commands at the point of a gun.

So while Western nations equivocate, ruminate, hold meetings, parse words in diplomatic statements, and issue meaningless warnings, the bottom line is that they have done nothing. Sanctions will not deter a man like Gaddafi. Sternly worded statements for the news media and finger wagging are pointless. And while we withhold any real support for the Libyan revolution, lacking the will to make a decisive choice in the matter, we tacitly lend support to Gaddafi through our inaction at this critical moment in the history of this region. And History will remember.

Gaddafi takes good advantage of the situation by hastening to crush the rebel forces under his tank tracks while he still can. I have little doubt that he is now eying Benghazi as his next Az Zawiya. If he can crush the rebellion there, at its very heart, the example will undoubtedly have a chilling effect on the remaining rebel towns and tribes.

The revolution has now reached a key tipping point. What will the West, and particularly the United States do? Will we sit by and let Gaddafi ravage Benghazi as he did Az Zawiya, and then let him launch the inevitable pogrom of reprisal against the rebel population for daring to demand their freedom? This is one of those moments on the cusp of time where decisive action in support of the revolution now could have the most dramatic and transforming effect on the region as a whole. But the West is well accustomed to turning a blind eye on oppression and even outright genocide... And Colonel Gaddafi knows this all too well. If we let this man trample his people into submission again, then shame on us as a nation, and as a people. And shame on Italy, France, and Germany as well, the old colonial masters of North Africa who sent their armed forces to exploit and war on each other in Libya in decades past, but cannot now muster the resolution and the means to end the reign of terror of this petty dictator once and for all by siding with those seeking their freedom.

The Arab League formally requested that the UN impose a no Fly Zone today, and recognized the Interim Council in Benghazi as the legitimate government representing the Libyan people. Meanwhile, a Libyan resistance fighter watched his brothers retreating under Gaddafi’s withering air strikes and wept. “Where is the West?”

03/11/11 - The potential political earthquake of Saudi Arabia’s “Day of Rage” was upstaged by Mother Nature and the massive earthquake/tsunami in Japan.

Over 35,000 people  signed on in support of the two planned protests in Saudi Arabia this kindling was not enough to ignite a major demonstration.  After what has already happened in Bahrain, the planned event had the Kingdom so worried that it signed on ten thousand new inductees to its security services in the last few weeks and deployed these forces to expected gathering places for any protest. Saudi government spokespersons have stated they would “cut off the finger” of anyone who raises their hand in protest. It has also put up a pro-Saud government Facebook site to counter the dissident Internet presence, and has opened up the royal coffers of late with $37 billion in low interest loans to its citizenry and a hefty 15% pay raise for all government employees. Yet the fire of dissent will not leave the Kingdom untouched. Friday  also saw planned protests in Yemen and Kuwait that were largely overshadowed by the news out of Japan.

Meanwhile, NATO began 24 hr “surveillance” over Libyan airspace, (most likely by AWACS early warning radar planes out of Malta). The move is a necessary prelude to any potential “No Fly Zone,” should one be declared. The merits of such an operation have been debated in our media, with retired military types stating that a No Fly Zone would require intensive strikes on Libya’s “Integrated air defense system,” requiring us to take out command and control facilities, air strips, SAM-6 sites, etc.

Having studied military history most of my life and designed many professional military simulations  in years past, Western powers need not impose such a wide ranging No Fly Zone to achieve what they want here--the end of Libyan air strikes on rebellious citizenry.  Simply declare the No Fly Zone to be in effect, and handle the matter locally. Most of Gaddafi’s air strikes have been right near the coast. Our AWACs surveillance can determine where Gaddafi attempts to deploy air strikes, and we can fly combat air patrols locally in that one area, (such as over the current action near Ras Lanuf), daring him to challenge the superiority of Western air forces. The United States has not lost a single fighter to enemy aircraft for decades. Our naval aviators aboard CV Enterprise and the aircraft they fly are far superior to anything in the Libyan air force. Tell Gaddafi, through whatever back channel you wish, that should he challenge the No Fly Zone his aircraft will be shot down. Saddam did not challenge our No Fly Zone in Iraq, and it is my bet that Gaddafi will not challenge us here either, the memories of his last brush with American pilots over the Gulf of Sidra still fresh in his mind. Simply declare the No Fly Zone and be prepared to back it up if challenged and I would bet Gaddafi would order his air force to stand down. Libyan helicopters can be similarly grounded by threatening to take out the very few logistical bases they rely on for operations should they fly in support of the army again. Savvy and experienced military air campaign planners are undoubtedly war-gaming this possibility of a limited No Fly Zone that is dynamic, local and easily deployed with existing regional assets. Should Gaddafi challenge us with a SAM-6, the option to “unleash Hell” always remains available in reprisal.

Time to separate the boys from the men, Mr. President. Declare the No Fly Zone and see what results. And while you’re at it declare a naval exclusion zone as well to neutralize Libya’s gunboat diplomacy. It won’t stop Libya’s tanks on the ground, but it will be a sign of our support for the revolution, and strike a moral blow as well. But watch the clock closely as the sun rides high in Riyadh. Be prepared to handle a Saudi crackdown resulting in violence against its citizenry there with equal resolve. Yes, the Saudi’s will deploy American made M1-Abrahms tanks should the going get rough, and fly US made F-15 and F-16 fighters. Care to contemplate the old diplomatic standby of “sanctions” on Saudi Arabia? I think not.

Friday’s “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arabia may starkly reveal the two faced nature of “American Interests” in the region, where “Some Arabs are more equal than other Arabs,” to torture a famous line from Orwell’s Animal Farm. Hillary Clinton will have a lot to talk about on her visit to the region today.

Earthshaking Events

The political earthquakes of the Middle East were upstaged by Mother Nature this morning when a series of powerful earthquakes struck just off the coast of Japan. The planned "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia was swept off the headline bars of news outlets the world over by the massive tsunami that struck the shores of Japan, sweeping cars and building inland and killing hundreds.

It began quietly enough when a relatively normal quake of magnitude 4.4 struck the Kurile Islands at 5:23am. Nothing more was felt until Kamchata to the north started rattling of a string of quakes registering 5.0, 4.7, 5.1 and 4.7 just after noon. The seismic activity migrated south to Japan's Bonin Islands with four more 4.7 range quakes, and this continued throughout the region with quakes striking off the Ryukyu until a large 7.2 quake struck Japan near the island of Honshu a 2:45pm. It looked like a typical quake scenario, with many regional foreshocks building up to this 7.1 event, and at least 17 aftershocks in the 4.7 to 5.3 range over the next 12 hours. Then Mother Nature really vented her wrath with a string of much larger quakes above 6.0 magnitude. 

A 6.1 quake struck off Honshu at 6:16 am UTC. Another 6.0 struck a few minutes later at 6:44pm as the sun began to set. Three hours later yet another 6.1 struck at 9:22am. What appeared to be large aftershocks to the 7.1 event were actually fore-shocks to a massive 8.9 quake at 2:46pm local Japan time.  This was the fifth largest earthquake on record. It has since been followed by a string of quakes that each would have made headlines under normal circumstances: 6.4, 6.4, 6.8, another 7.1, 6.3, 6.3, 5.8, 5.9, 6.3, 6.1, 6.1, six more quakes in the 5.5 to 5.9 range then 6.2, 6.2, 6.5, 6.1 then ten quakes in the 5 range, another 6.0, another ten quakes in the 5 range, a 6.5 followed by 20 more aftershocks in the 5 range!  That's 15 events of 6.0 or greater, two of 7.0 or more and the big 8.9 quake. Bear in mind these 6.0 plus quakes were on the same scale as our "Northridge" quake in the LA basin.

Tsunami warnings were posted throughout the pacific, with waves due to hit the west coast of the US by 8am this morning.

Turning Point

Gaddafi forces prevail at Ras Lanuf, opening gateway to Cyrenacia, heartland of the Rebellion.

03/10/11 - The battle for Ras Lanuf continued as the Gaddafi Saadi Brigade, backed by helicopters, Mig-23 jet fighters and naval gun ships launched a coordinated assault to rout rebel opposition and seize the oil facilities there and at Mersa Brega. The Libyan Army did what any military commander worth his salt would do under similar circumstances. The rebel forces, composed of untrained militias of partisan youth, many fighting with only a few days experience, have enough weaponry to block the coastal road leading to Ras Lanuf and make a frontal assault costly. So the Saadi Brigade divided its forces into two battalion assault columns and sent one directly at Ras Lanuf to fix the scattered defense there on the coastal road, while the second executed a wide envelopment aimed at outflanking rebel resistance and approaching Mersa Brega from the south. These are the very same tactics Rommel and Montgomery used in WWII when fighting along these desert coastlines. The Gaddafi attack was further augmented by helicopter gunship and air strikes, with naval gunboats flanking the rebel positions from the sea to the north of Ras Lanuf. It is clear now that the inexperienced and disorganized rebel forces are no match for Gaddafi’s Brigades in these circumstances, and Ras Lanuf is likely to fall back into pro-government hands within hours.

Behind it is the strategic town of Ajdabiya, which Israeli site Debka incorrectly reported captured by Gaddafi forces on March 8th. The town remains firmly in rebel hands, a small but densely structured urban center that could be easy to surround but difficult to clear. Should the rebels fall back to Ajdabiya and fight there, we are likely to see one of two outcomes: 1) a bloody urban battle like Zawiya wherein most of this town will be destroyed by the superior firepower of Gaddafi armored forces, or 2) Gaddafi forces could simply surround and bypass the town, cutting it off from outside help as they continue north into the Rebel held province of Cyrenacia. Frankly I was amazed it took the Libyan Army so long to prevail here, with a full brigade, air support, helicopters, gunboats and artillery at their disposal, outgunning the rebels by a factor of five.  This operation marks the first decisive military victory by Gaddafi against the rebellion. His actions in the west have largely failed to retake Zawiya and Misurata.

In Zawiya, the Kamis Brigade has acted in a way that can only be described as criminal. As many as 50 tanks backed by infantry in Armored carriers blasted their way into the city, using their firepower to indiscriminately destroy buildings. Civilian casualties have been very high, but the rebels still control the city center. Gaddafi has tried to prevent the world from witnessing the brutal force he has applied there, intimidating, arresting, and beating foreign journalists like the three BBC reporters who were subjected to a mock execution. Yet reports have leaked out of tanks firing directly into buildings, soldiers breaking into residential homes, snipers killing anyone found outside, old men, women, children. This is what Gaddafi will have to do in Benghazi if he is to prevail.
Yet this is war. Western nations did not hesitate to bomb and utterly destroy civilian centers when they fought each other in WWII. And let us not forget we used atomic weapons to obliterate two Japanese cities, and killed over 100,000 more in a single weekend when we firebombed Tokyo. It is only in recent years that the world decries civilian casualties arising from political conflict--as long as they are not trumped by other “interests” that we value more than human lives.

One thing now is clear to the rebellion: it does not have the military strength to directly oppose and defeat Gaddafi’s more experience and much better armed military. Yet the rebels now know that should their uprising fail there will be brutal reprisals and a return to the 42 year tyranny of Gaddafi. I have little doubt that they will end up pursuing the only strategy they can really adopt given their lack of heavy weapons-- a defense of the most densely populated urban centers like Benghazi, Al Mart, Al Bayda, Darnah and Tobruk. They will fight for these cities as they fight now in Zawiya and Misurata, and Gaddafi will have to destroy the entire eastern province of Cyrenacia if he is to prevail.

With NATO and UN  nations still quibbling over whether or not to impose a no fly zone and deny Gaddafi use of his small air force, the question is now firmly on the table--will the West sit by and allow the continued killing of civilian dissidents in Libya, with all the destruction urban fighting will most certainly entail in places like Benghazi?  And what will the United States do in this event?

History seldom presents such pointed yet vital questions to an American president, but this is certainly one of them. Will the US support the Libyan revolution and recognize the Libyan Transitional National Council, or will it lend de-facto support to Gaddafi by failing to take action. We sat by and watched Saddam slaughter thousands in Southern Iraq when the Shia rebellion occurred there after the first Gulf War, even with the victorious US army just a few miles away. The result was that we had to go back and fight a second Gulf War for 8 long years in Iraq.

This is a moment on the cusp of time that will decide the fate of Libya, and strongly influence the future course of the popular Arab uprising now underway through the region. A whole generation of Arab peoples, most under 30 years of age, have courageously rebelled against the long entrenched autocracy of their oppressive governments, demanding the one thing we claim to hold most dear in this country--freedom. A decisive action now in support of the Libyan government is a strategic and moral imperative for the United States. The time for equivocation is over. History is asking us a question that we will long regret not answering here. It is time to support the Libyan revolution with the considerable means at our disposal.

Perhaps we fear to take such a decisive stand because rebellion has now come to the vital region of the Persian Gulf in places like Bahrain and now even Saudi Arabia, nations we have armed with our weapons and supported for generations in exchange for a stable and abundant flow of oil. We fear to answer the question in Libya because History may ask it of us yet again in Saudi Arabia. To say this is a thorny problem for the US, and the world, is putting things lightly. It would be far easier to do nothing. The world had no qualms when nearly a million were killed in bloody purges throughout Africa over the last decade. When oil, gas and money are on one scale and human lives on the other, we have too often chosen, to our great shame, to protect  commodities and ignore human lives. 

03/09/11 - The map above shows the present state of the Libyan revolution, and it is one that would give pro-Gaddafi comanders restless nights. Their one success to date has been the action by Saadi Brigade (4) at Bin Jawad, which stopped the rebel advance on Surt and is now increasing pressure on Ras Lanuf, with more air strikes reported daily there. The Gaddafi army has before it an imposing task, and a campaign much more difficult than Rommel had when he  drove east on these desert roads during WWII. As Rommel could threaten to drive directly on Cairo, his Afrika Korps could take the right fork at Ajdabiya and race directly for Tobruk. He did not need to bother with cities like Benghazi, Al Mart, Al Bayda and Darnah. The British retreated as fast as he could advance, through their bastion at Tobruk and then back to the Egyptian border to defend Egypt. But Gaddafi’s loyalist brigades must retake all the green cities and towns, secure them, and re-impose Gaddafi’s authoritarian rule there. Then he must re-enlist the loyalty of all the desert tribes that have abandoned him as well. I reckon it near impossible for him to achieve this. His Khamis Brigade (1) continues to blast its way through Az Zuwiyah in the west, with reports of indiscriminate use of heavy weapons there, destroying buildings and infrastructure in an attempt to impose fear as their ultimate control over the dissident population. He will have to do the same to every city in Libya to re-impose his authority, leaving the nation in ruins if he were to succeed.

News sources have been intrigued today with a report that three of Gaddafi’s private planes have taken off, one heading for Austria, one for Egypt and one for Greece. Speculation is that someone, or some thing is being moved out of the embattled country. The revolutionary council gave Gaddafi a 72 hour ultimatum yesterday, but Israeli news site Debka again has an outlandish spin on the story.(They are sounding more like our own Fox News each day with their constant spin of the situation as one in which Gaddafi is firmly in control and driving events with his iron fisted elite brigades.) They published a photo of a jubilant Gaddafi and claimed the Rebels have offered Gaddafi a cease fire, agreeing to lay down their arms in exchange for a pledge from him to “save Benghazi.” Debka claims an Egyptian Field Marshal, the Greek Prime Minister, and Vienna based diplomats are behind these negotiations, which matches the flight paths of  the three planes leaving Tripoli.

Gaddafi forces are, of course, nowhere near Benghazi. To pose any threat to that city they would first have to fight their way through Ras Lanuf, Mersa El Brega, Ajdabiya, Qumanius, Sulug and other smaller towns along the way. I find it improbable that the Rebellion would concede so easily after its initial dramatic successes. The burden of proof, where control of Libya is concerned, is firmly on Gaddafi. All the Rebellion has to do is hold the ground it presently has, in effect creating two Libyas, one liberated and one controlled by Gaddafi. A look at the map above tells the real story, and Gaddafi is a long, long way from restoring the authority of his regime. The Rebellion is unlikely to give him what he cannot take, and he has not proven he can take much at all,  the capture of Bin Jawad being his only military victory to date.

03/08/11 - The Gaddaffi counteroffensive has reportedly seized control of Bin Jawad but has been unable to retake the oil towns of Ras Lanuf or Mersa El Brega where rebel forces are consolidating and awaiting reinforcements from Benghazi after advancing 100 miles in the previous week.

In Zawiya, (west of Tripoli) Gaddafi troops are able to bull their way into the city center, but cannot secure the city, as they come under constant attack by rebel forces there. Yet isolated as it is from any other outside help, the insurgents may have little remaining ammunition. In this light, Gaddafi’s inability to quell opposition there with his finest troops, “The Kamis Brigade” shows how difficult it is to secure hostile urban environments.

One has only to recall the intense fighting in Fallujah, Iraq, after the US threw more than 8 battalions of hardened US Marines and Army units, supported by an additional 2000 Iraqi army troops against an estimated 2500 insurgents. It took 9 days of intense fighting to secure the city, and sporadic fighting continued there for another five weeks as Marines had to continually patrol and re-clear areas over and over that had been re-infiltrated by insurgents. This Marine/Army unit was a highly skilled force comprised of two regimental combat teams, supported by tanks, APCs, helicopters and considerable air power and artillery. It possessed combat power an order of magnitude beyond Gaddafi’s “Kamis Brigade.”  So the inability of Gaddafi’s best to secure Zawiya demonstrates, in no uncertain terms, that Gaddafi has no chance of ever re-imposing his authority over Libya in populous cities like Benghazi. His forces continue to struggle in Zawiya, and Misurata, all well within his sphere of influence near Tripoli and isolated from the main rebel resistance in the east.

Even though his troops possess tanks, have air and helicopter support, and have naval gunboats, they have not been able to decisively defeat the lightly armed rebel forces on the front lines near Ras Lanuf. The inability of Gaddafi troops to take and hold Ras Lanuf and Mersa El Brega in short order is telling. Keep in mind that the resistance is largely composed of a small core of defected army troops augmented by scores of youth who are holding weapons for the first time in their lives. The inability of Gaddafi forces to quickly defeat this opposition shows they have little chance of advancing on Benghazi, or ever retaking that eastern stronghold should they even manage to approach that city, the second most populous city in Libya. In fact, Gaddafi cannot even claim to completely control all of Tripoli, and there are whole segments of the city that are hostile to his regime.

These facts have led to stories this morning that there have been secret negotiations between the Gaddafi government and the Revolutionary council in Benghazi. Today the council announced it would not pursue Gaddafi for crimes, and would guarantee his safe travel, if he steps down and leaves the country within 72 hours.

Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, the government there has reportedly augmented its security forces by drafting 10,000 new conscripts and is sending columns of armor and military to Shia areas most likely to demonstrate in the planned “Day of Rage” scheduled for March 11 and March 20. News like this has led oil futures traders to place call orders for oil at $200/barrel deliverable in June, 2011. (Such call orders guarantee the $200 price while not obligating the buyer to actually make the purchase.)

The Road to Tripoli

03/07/11 - Conflicting reports were the order of the day over the weekend. Fighters in the besieged city of Az-Zawiya, 30 miles west of Tripoli, successfully repelled another major attempt by pro-Gaddafi forces to occupy the city, even while state TV in Tripoli broadcast that they city had been retaken. Yet rebel spokesmen in Zawiya reported to Al Jazeera that Libyan army forces loyal to Gaddafi penetrated to Martyr’s Square, several hundred strong with supporting armor, but were then driven out again by defending freedom fighters. 30 were reported dead and up to 200 injured in the fighting. The Israeli site Debka reported a different result in the battle for Az-Zawiya stating: “The Khamis Brigade No. 32 of the Libyan army, which Saturday morning won the battle for Zawiyah 30 kilometers west of Tripoli, using tanks, Grad surface missiles and artillery to break down opposition defenses.” It was clear by Sunday that pro-Gaddafi forces were no longer in the heart of the town, and had been forced to withdraw.

Elsewhere, the fighting on the coastal road continued from Ras Lanuf west, with the area still in dispute. Debka’s analysis claims the Libyan army still holds key centers in Ras Lanuf and that they also retook Misurata, a city of 600,000 people further west. And Debka also reported Gaddafi forces were still in the oil port of Mersa El Brega, well east of Ras Lanuf, though that town has been firmly under rebel control for days. Yet pro-government forces have apparently launched a major counteroffensive aimed at taking back all these towns, and the euphoric advance of the rebels on the road to Tripoli has been halted. Gaddafi’s forces have the advantage in experience, training, and combined arms, with both armor and air support, however minimal, from the fledgling Libyan air force. Yet Al Jazeera reported that there were many Rebel casualties, a good number from their own weapons, and they were young boys three weeks ago, now becoming men as they learn in the hardest way possible in the school of war.

Libyan opposition leaders still call for a “no fly zone” to help aid their cause, but Debka reported that Gaddafi has taken measures to defeat that should it ever come. At times the Debka analysis appears almost comical, however. They claimed, for instance, that Gaddafi has moved all his remaining aging Mig-23 and Su-22 fighters south near the Sahara where they will be “outside the range” of US carrier aircraft. Yet the Gaddafi’s  SU-22 export version has a range of 590 nautical miles and no in flight refueling capability, and the old Mig-23s have a range of 970 nautical miles, while US carrier based F-16s have a range of 2500 nautical miles and unlimited in-flight refueling capability. Who does Debka’s research? Their analysis would seem to indicate the Libyans could easily sortie from their deep Saharan bases in the south and return home, while US carrier based planes in the Gulf of Sirte with about 2.5 to 5 times the flight range of their adversaries, could not make it to the Saharan bases and back? Nonsense. The distance from the sea to the southermost Libyan border is no more than 700-800 miles, well within F-16 strike range, yet well outside Su-22 strike range in the other direction. And should the US choose to intervene in the air they would not even have to take out the Libyan bases in the south or impose a nation wide no fly zone. All they would have to do is fly combat air patrols over the coastal roads leading west to Tripoli, and any pro-Gaddafi aircraft flying out of these Saharan bases would then have to face lethal and efficient US naval air patrols when they arrived at the coast--if they arrived at the coast. The US would see them coming well in advance and make short work of them if challenged. Enterprise could also be joined in due course by CV-77 (George Bush), which took on live ammunition from CV-Truman a week ago and is available on the US East coast. (Alas, the US government does not appear to have the will to use the considerable means at its disposal, so all of this may be a moot point in the end.)

Western reporters also flatly contradicted the Debka analysis, stating Misurata was still firmly in the anti-government camp but the situation remains very fluid. The live Libyan blog reported that as of 1am March 7: “Mohammed Ali, a member of the civil committee for Misurata affairs claimed  rebels are in control of the area.” They stated that Gaddafi’s forces cannot hold positions they take inside the town for long, as the city of 600,000 is a hostile environment.

To the west, Libyan air force attacks have been made against advancing groups of rebelling fighters, and rebels claimed they shot down at least one plane.  Al Jazeera reporter Tony Birtley, traveling with the resistance fighters, reported four air strikes but noted that Gaddafi's troops have retreated, pursued by rebel fighters still moving west. But the situation remained fluid on Sunday with rebel forces advancing west to Bin Jawad, where they were then ambushed by Gaddafi forces occupying residential homes in the town and  forced to fall back on Ras Lanuf  after stiffer pro-government resistance. The key fact is this: it was clear that the fighting had moved from Ras Lanuf to positions further west along the coastal road to Bin Jawad, where the Gaddafi forces have dug in to halt the advance west in Surt.

Noted Middle East specialist Professor Juan Cole reported: “The partisans of the liberation movement seem determined to go further and try to take the city of Sirt (Sirte, Surt) (pop. 135,000). The advantage here is that if they can conquer Sirt, they can link up with rebels who control Misurata (pop. 600,000), and so will control everything east of Tripoli. Since the eastern, working-class suburbs of Tripoli are not under control of the government, either, Qaddafi would be reduced to dominating only downtown Tripoli and some sparsely populated towns in the west.” Surt (Sirte), the  birthplace of Gaddafi, may prove the most difficult test for the incipient rebellion, as it is home to a privileges class of many pro-Gaddafi families who have long benefited from his regime.

Heavy gunfire reported in Tripoli was supposed to have been the people there celebrating all these Gaddafi victories Debka has been reporting. Gaddafi himself also stated he still controls Benghazi and Tobruk, which puts him in the same league with the famous “Baghdad Bob,” the Iraqi spokesperson who claimed Baghdad was firmly under Saddam’s control when US Armored divisions were rolling through the city.

There was fighting again in Tobruk, but Gaddafi forces do not control that city. All this said, the lightly armed rebel forces that had been advancing west have apparently met determined pro-government resistance now, with Surt being the one stronghold that Gaddafi will now fight for to halt their advance. The action at Bin Jawad is a distant outpost to that city, which will prove the most difficult battle should the rebels be able to muster enough force to launch a concerted assault there.

What we have seen in all this fighting is that both sides have limited offensive capability. Gaddafi troops can fight their way into opposition towns, inflicting many civilian casualties, but the local population has been too numerous in places like Zawiya and Misurata for Gaddafi troops to hold their positions for very long. They are then forced to withdraw and regroup outside the city for another attack. (This is no “in and out tactic.”  The rebel forces have moved quickly in light vehicles along the desert road through the much smaller towns of Mersa El Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, but here Gaddafi forces have been able to mount significant counterattacks and ambushes, and also harass them with desultory air strikes, as the local population is not great enough to create a truly hostile environment for them.

The Mayor of Tripoli

03/01/11 - In Zawiya, just 30 kilometers West of Tripoli, the freedom movement strengthened its control of the city of 200,000 people while Gaddafi chided them as being under the influence of Bin Ladin. Residents have built defenses including tanks,  anti-aircraft guns and other captured army weapons, with many manned by soldiers who have joined the rebellion. Between Zawiya and Tripoli, pro-government security forces have set up at least six barricaded checkpoints to ward off any threat to the capitol from the east, and they have also sent armored forces to the outskirts of Zawiya to prevent the rebellion from spreading from that point. The Libyan air force mounted emergency air ferry operations to bring in more foreign fighters from the south  to reinforce the capitol.

In Tripoli itself, Gaddafi has taken a leaf from the Kuwaiti book by instructing the banks to pay a dividend of 500 Dinars ($400 US) to all city citizens, and promising to issue them low interest loans for housing. He has literally bought an interval of quiet, now rigidly enforced by security forces in the city. The streets of the capitol were eerily quiet and deserted.
Debka reported that US and other NATO nations have sent in military and intelligence advisors to the victorious rebel forces in the east. The US is also reportedly moving CV Enterprise and Kearsarge (a Marine amphibious transport carrier) to positions off the Libyan coast. The American carrier based air power could easily enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, and the Marine unit would serve for other contingencies.

Meanwhile, protests continued in Yemen, Bahrain and now Oman, where looting was reported in the latest round of demonstrations. And let us not forget the ticking clock on the planned “Day Of Rage” in Saudi Arabia, where demonstrations are planned for March 11 in Riyadh. Saudi security forces have already responded to minor protests in the kingdom, and they are reported to be mobilizing assets in the event the turmoil that has rocked the region comes home to plague the House of Saud.

02/28/11 - As Americans shook off the last hangover watching the 3.5 hour Oscars and another 2 hours of post ceremony partying by the Hollywood elite, the residents of Tripoli endure a virtual lockdown. Gaddafi’s security apparatus has manned checkpoints throughout the city and killed just enough people to frighten the remainder into staying home. Bread is now being rationed, with a limit of five loaves per family. The price of a 10 pound bag of rice has skyrocketed 500 percent to the US Equivalent of $40, money the people just do not have. So while the entire east of Libya has been liberated from Gaddafi’s rule, he remains the embattled Mayor of Tripoli, holding 2 million residents there hostage with gas, armored cars, kalishnikov rifle toting militias roving the city in SUVs and pickup trucks, and a hyperinflation fueled bout of starvation. Something tells me that by adding hunger to his mix of oppressive tools he is making a fatal mistake. Hungry people soon become desperate people, and it may not be long before the masses brave the rifles in their overwhelming numbers and emerge from their homes with a vengeance.

The interim government of Eastern Libya announced it would form paramilitary forces to extend their control over more cities. Gaddafi has already lost control of 80% of the oil production capacity of Libya, and his control anywhere outside of Tripoli is marginal in the west. Western national, including oil field workers, have fled the country, but locals have been reportedly struggling to keep the oil flowing. Even though Saudi Arabia increased production by 500,000 barrels per day to take up any slack, speculators have bid the price of oil futures up higher. Brent crude briefly hit $114/barrel before retreating to about $96/barrel over the weekend. Even though all the gasoline in the system now was purchased long ago at much lower prices, the oil companies have used the threat of future disruption in oil flows to ratchet up prices here almost immediately, with some US cities reporting prices nearing or exceeding $4.00/gallon. The Libyans pay inflated prices for their bread. We pay inflated prices for oil. This situation was further compounded by the spread of protests in Iraq, and now Oman, where demonstrators targeted oil facilities, refineries and roads used to transport refined oil to port. Clearly the people instinctively know how to get the world’s attention.

02/24/11 - Gaddafi claimed today that, (you guessed it), Al Qaeda was behind the Libyan uprising, and that it was mostly comprised of misled kids under 20 on drugs. This repeats the tired theme that all unrest is the work of “terrorists.” In fact, governments the world over have come to define any anti-government sentiment or action as “terrorism,” even here in the USA.  In the meantime, Gaddafi has apparently called for a muster of his fighting militias, long veterans of the warfare with Chad, and columns have been seen heading north on the roads to Tripoli. Africa has no shortage of machete wielding, kalishnikov toting thugs who will kill and maim indiscriminately for pay. These are the real terrorists in the world, the men who gave us rape, pillage and death on a genocidal scale in Sudan, Darfur, Somalia and elsewhere. With most of  western Libya no longer in government control, Gaddafi continues to hold on to his center of power in Tripol,i where leaving your home courts death these days. Yet an ominous, and as yet unconfirmed, “tweet” on the Internet has reported a large column of tanks heading west from Tripoli.

President Obama asked his national security team to consider “the full range of options” concerning Libya, but the word “sanctions” was high on the list, so don’t expect any real response in support of the freedom movement from Uncle Sam. Sanctions? This is a tool that can work only on a government concerned that shortages imposed by the measures will harm its people and economy. Gaddafi has no such qualms.