Friday, July 24, 2009

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

It has been said that there are little white lies, plain ordinary lies, damn lies, and then there is a category that tops them all--statistics!

1) Have you been out of a job for longer than one year?
2) Have you recently seen your unemployment benefits run out, but still find no work?
3) Are you out of work but so discouraged you haven't looked for a job in the last 4 weeks?
4) Have you lost your full time job and are you working part time to scrape by?
5) Are you in a trade or profession that has seasonal or chronic unemployment?

GOOD NEWS FROM THE GOVERNMENT!!! You're NOT unemployed!

Yes, you read that correctly. If any of the above conditions applies to you, according to the government you are NOT unemployed! Forget about the fact that you also do NOT receive a paycheck each week. That's a minor detail to the statisticians who compile the rosy employment data at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. When Uncle Sam counts heads for all folks he reports as unemployed in the official U-3 number, none of the categories above are tallied.

Let's sharpen a pencil and add things up...
1) About 4,400,000 have been out of work over a year--but they are no longer counted.
2) About 750,000 saw their benefits run out in June--out of work, but not counted.
3) About 1,400,000 didn't look for a job in June--out of work, but not counted.
4) About 9,000,000 can't find a full time job at all--not counted as unemployed.
5) Tens of thousands of seasonal workers have no current work--but they are not counted.

Add to this the fact that tens of thousands of former small business owners, who could not claim unemployment insurance when their business failed, are also not counted.

And all those workers at state offices closed to save money, and all those workers sent home without pay for a week in companies all across the nation... not even in the Fed spreadsheet. Not counted.

Then consider that the government just did a "statistical sample" and added 185,000 new people to be counted as "employed" last month, even though no data exists to prove any of these people were real, or that they actually landed a job.

Don't you just love the way the government crunches numbers? This is the same sort of basic intellectual denial that sees all sorts of "green shoots" sprouting up when in fact there is no sign of any economic recovery underway now at all. Zero, zilch, none. So after heavily fudging its numbers the Federal government reports only 10.5% unemployed (BLS Number for June '09) when in actuality the real number is about double that.

Statistics are like bathing suits: they reveal just enough to be interesting, while concealing that which is essential. In this case the essential truth is what is being concealed. That truth is that one in five American workers are out of work, or underemployed, about 20% of the workforce now. Spin that any way you want, but it is near depression level unemployment, and it arrived 24 months sooner than it did in the 1930s.