Well, I started this blog writing about the possibility of a pandemic outbreak of the H1N1 "Swine" flu, and today the World Health Organization made it official. The virus has spread sufficiently, and with a high enough infection rate, to now be considered a serious pandemic threat. More than 27,000 cases have now been reported, with nearly half of those here in the US (13,217). Another 5,717 cases have been reported in Mexico, and over 2000 in Canada, so the North American Continent is ground zero for any potential second wave this fall if the virus returns.
The key question I have is whether the virus will mutate into a more virulent form or not. We have had conflicting stories on this, with some researchers claiming the mild initial outbreak was due to a weaknesses in the virus that makes it more difficult to infect the lungs. Only 141 people have died from the virus, and normal flu kills between 300,000 and 500,000 people each year. So by any measure this "pandemic" is extremely mild, at least in this initial wave. Yet WHO's definition of "pandemic" has nothing to do with the severity of an outbreak, but instead defines a spreading infection pattern that is global, (now in 74 countries). So we could just have a rapidly spreading, yet very weak virus here, that does not pose any serious threat.
That said, WHO seems genuinely concerned. What do they know about how the virus is mutating that the public has yet to learn? And why is the vaccine taking so long to develop?
The key question I have is whether the virus will mutate into a more virulent form or not. We have had conflicting stories on this, with some researchers claiming the mild initial outbreak was due to a weaknesses in the virus that makes it more difficult to infect the lungs. Only 141 people have died from the virus, and normal flu kills between 300,000 and 500,000 people each year. So by any measure this "pandemic" is extremely mild, at least in this initial wave. Yet WHO's definition of "pandemic" has nothing to do with the severity of an outbreak, but instead defines a spreading infection pattern that is global, (now in 74 countries). So we could just have a rapidly spreading, yet very weak virus here, that does not pose any serious threat.
That said, WHO seems genuinely concerned. What do they know about how the virus is mutating that the public has yet to learn? And why is the vaccine taking so long to develop?
