I've been quietly following the news on the old Israel vs Iran thing, largely eclipsed these days by the upwelling of civil protest in Iran. But behind the scenes both sides continued to trade harsh words and make real preparations and deployments for an inevitable conflict.
Here's a light summary of some things you may have missed:
March 2009 - Jerusalem Post reveals that four key strategic considerations have changed in the Iran equation. I quote them here: “ First, Iran has proven it can successfully launch a satellite into outer space as it did on February 2.... Second, the International Atomic Energy Agency last week admitted that it had underestimated Iran's nuclear stockpile by about one-third. ... Third, Iran has ramped up its enrichment program with thousands of new homegrown, highly advanced centrifuges. ...Fourth, Binyamin Netanyahu has just become prime minister of Israel. He is determined to take action before - not after - Iran achieves its nuclear potential. This creates a volatile, hair-trigger situation that could explode at any moment.”
April, 2009 - The London Times reports that Israel is training to carry out a strike on Iran on short notice, a matter of days or even hours after being given the go sign. Meanwhile, Harretz reported: “The Home Front Command is preparing to hold the largest exercise ever in Israeli history, scheduled to take place in about two months, in hopes of priming the populace and raising awareness of the possibility of war breaking out.” The nation wide exercise will last a full week and is scheduled for June, 2009. It appears Israel is determined to go to war to prevent Iran from the potential of obtaining a nuclear weapon. Israel is believed to have more than 100 nuclear warheads now. Analysts believe Iran would have only enough fissile material for a single weapon in the 2010 to 2013 time frame.
May, 2009 - Iran continued to arm itself with missiles, following a strategy that has been proven successful against the conventional military operations of nations like the US and Israel. Reports emerged that Iran was scaling back production of the liquid fueled Shahab-3 Missile in favor of the more stealthy solid fueled Sejil II. When mounted on mobile launchers provided by China, this missile will be difficult to find until launch compared to the Shehab, which takes hours of preparation prior to launch from fixed sites. Reports also came in claiming Israel was moving missile capable subs to the Persian Gulf, (which would seem to me to be a routine deployment).
June, 2009 - With the troubled reelection of Amadinijad and related protests, both sides continue to test and deploy military systems that would be used in any imminent conflict. Again China appears to be aiding Iran, sharpening her teeth with the sale of the HY2 Hai Ying “Sea Eagle” missile, a Chinese version of the deadly Russian designed Moskit 3M80 “Sunburn” anti-ship supersonic cruise missile. Traveling at speeds of 1500 to 1700 mph, the missile is a deadly threat to US carrier task forces, and was designed to defeat ships protected by the American Aegis missile defense system. On the Israeli side the US Pacific Missile Test Range centered on Naval Station Pt. Mugu will provide a range for the testing of the Arrow III ABM system off the California Coast in mid July. The teeth on both sides are sharpening.
July, 2009 - CampaignIran.org reports: “Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the Suez Canal ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.” Other news in the early summer included talk of European and US support for an Israeli attack on Iran in exchange for real Israeli compromise on Palestine after it all blows over. Iran continued to brush off Israeli threats and promised massive retaliation if attacked. In effect, nothing has changed. The tension on the spring continues to mount as a report of an Iranian nuclear capability inside of 6 months added fuel to the rumor mill.
If there is anything we have learned about the Middle East, it is to expect the worst of any potential outcome should war erupt there later this year.
Here's a light summary of some things you may have missed:
March 2009 - Jerusalem Post reveals that four key strategic considerations have changed in the Iran equation. I quote them here: “ First, Iran has proven it can successfully launch a satellite into outer space as it did on February 2.... Second, the International Atomic Energy Agency last week admitted that it had underestimated Iran's nuclear stockpile by about one-third. ... Third, Iran has ramped up its enrichment program with thousands of new homegrown, highly advanced centrifuges. ...Fourth, Binyamin Netanyahu has just become prime minister of Israel. He is determined to take action before - not after - Iran achieves its nuclear potential. This creates a volatile, hair-trigger situation that could explode at any moment.”
April, 2009 - The London Times reports that Israel is training to carry out a strike on Iran on short notice, a matter of days or even hours after being given the go sign. Meanwhile, Harretz reported: “The Home Front Command is preparing to hold the largest exercise ever in Israeli history, scheduled to take place in about two months, in hopes of priming the populace and raising awareness of the possibility of war breaking out.” The nation wide exercise will last a full week and is scheduled for June, 2009. It appears Israel is determined to go to war to prevent Iran from the potential of obtaining a nuclear weapon. Israel is believed to have more than 100 nuclear warheads now. Analysts believe Iran would have only enough fissile material for a single weapon in the 2010 to 2013 time frame.
May, 2009 - Iran continued to arm itself with missiles, following a strategy that has been proven successful against the conventional military operations of nations like the US and Israel. Reports emerged that Iran was scaling back production of the liquid fueled Shahab-3 Missile in favor of the more stealthy solid fueled Sejil II. When mounted on mobile launchers provided by China, this missile will be difficult to find until launch compared to the Shehab, which takes hours of preparation prior to launch from fixed sites. Reports also came in claiming Israel was moving missile capable subs to the Persian Gulf, (which would seem to me to be a routine deployment).
June, 2009 - With the troubled reelection of Amadinijad and related protests, both sides continue to test and deploy military systems that would be used in any imminent conflict. Again China appears to be aiding Iran, sharpening her teeth with the sale of the HY2 Hai Ying “Sea Eagle” missile, a Chinese version of the deadly Russian designed Moskit 3M80 “Sunburn” anti-ship supersonic cruise missile. Traveling at speeds of 1500 to 1700 mph, the missile is a deadly threat to US carrier task forces, and was designed to defeat ships protected by the American Aegis missile defense system. On the Israeli side the US Pacific Missile Test Range centered on Naval Station Pt. Mugu will provide a range for the testing of the Arrow III ABM system off the California Coast in mid July. The teeth on both sides are sharpening.
July, 2009 - CampaignIran.org reports: “Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the Suez Canal ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.” Other news in the early summer included talk of European and US support for an Israeli attack on Iran in exchange for real Israeli compromise on Palestine after it all blows over. Iran continued to brush off Israeli threats and promised massive retaliation if attacked. In effect, nothing has changed. The tension on the spring continues to mount as a report of an Iranian nuclear capability inside of 6 months added fuel to the rumor mill.
If there is anything we have learned about the Middle East, it is to expect the worst of any potential outcome should war erupt there later this year.
