A strange, deadly flu continues to germinate in Ukraine, but "Swine Flu" is a paper tiger.
On Nov 3rd I commented on a story that got wide circulation on the Internet, but was entirely ignored by mainstream media. It concerned an outbreak of a new, deadly strain of flu in the Ukraine. I've been following the news out of Ukraine of late and here's an update.
The "flu" has now reportedly infected about 1.3 million people. Death rates have been remarkably low, but the way people do die is frightening. Ukrainian doctors report that this new bug, (clearly not the H1N1 strain circulating elsewhere), bypasses the trachea and goes directly to the lungs. You don't get the normal onset of sore throat that typical flu causes. But once in the lungs there is hemorrhaging that causes severe lung damage. People cannot get oxygen, and go into cardio-pulmonary shock. These were symptoms similar to the dread "Spanish Flu" outbreak of 1918-1919. The death toll since Oct 31 has risen by an average of a little over 13% per day, but remains low, just 315 deaths reported from this new killer to date. This is a remarkably low mortality rate.
There is something odd with this data. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of at least 2.5% at the peak of that pandemic. But if the 1.3 million people in Ukraine have been infected with this new bug circulating there we would expect to see 13,000 deaths to have just a 1% mortality rate, and about 30,000 deaths if this new bug were as lethal as the 1918 virus. Instead we have seen only 315 deaths. This tells us that the new strain in Ukraine is either very picky about who it kills, or that the 1.3 million infected clearly don't have this new strain, but are probably infected with other milder strains of the flu. (There are at least 5 flu strains in circulation this year).
In general, however, the "Swine Flu" appears to be fairly weak. WHO reports only about 4000 deaths in the U.S. since April attributed to H1N1. On average, 36,000 die from "normal" flu in the U.S. alone each year. So the dread "swine flu," and all the hoopla about the vaccinations, appears to be much ado about nothing. The Swine flu may be a rapidly spreading illness, but it is simply not that threatening, and appears to have a mortality rate many times weaker than the "normal" flu.
So is the emerging outbreak in Ukraine evidence of a newly mutated strain of swine flu? WHO knows...or perhaps they don't know. The international agency has been surprisingly mute on the subject, and has not released genetic sequences on this new strain. Labs in the UK are presently working on this. WHO's official statement reports: "The initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus."
So take all these reports together, look at the death tolls, and you have to conclude that this year's flu season is a paper tiger. CDC estimates that 22 million Americans have contracted the disease with only 4000 deaths. If this were anything like the 1918-1919 Spanish flu it would have already killed 550,000 people.
People in the Ukraine have much more to worry about than the flu. They were considering printing a billion hryvnias to combat the flu bug, but that proposition was vetoed. Meanwhile, their national rail agency defaulted on its $550 million loan, their banks have all been downgraded to B- by ratings agency Fitch, their national debt reached 44.5% of GDP this year, their foreign trade surplus fell 26.9%, their steel sector is reducing output 20%, and they can't pay Russia for natural gas. Clearly their financial flu is much more threatening than the viral stuff.
I'd say the same for things here in the U.S.
On Nov 3rd I commented on a story that got wide circulation on the Internet, but was entirely ignored by mainstream media. It concerned an outbreak of a new, deadly strain of flu in the Ukraine. I've been following the news out of Ukraine of late and here's an update.
The "flu" has now reportedly infected about 1.3 million people. Death rates have been remarkably low, but the way people do die is frightening. Ukrainian doctors report that this new bug, (clearly not the H1N1 strain circulating elsewhere), bypasses the trachea and goes directly to the lungs. You don't get the normal onset of sore throat that typical flu causes. But once in the lungs there is hemorrhaging that causes severe lung damage. People cannot get oxygen, and go into cardio-pulmonary shock. These were symptoms similar to the dread "Spanish Flu" outbreak of 1918-1919. The death toll since Oct 31 has risen by an average of a little over 13% per day, but remains low, just 315 deaths reported from this new killer to date. This is a remarkably low mortality rate.
There is something odd with this data. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of at least 2.5% at the peak of that pandemic. But if the 1.3 million people in Ukraine have been infected with this new bug circulating there we would expect to see 13,000 deaths to have just a 1% mortality rate, and about 30,000 deaths if this new bug were as lethal as the 1918 virus. Instead we have seen only 315 deaths. This tells us that the new strain in Ukraine is either very picky about who it kills, or that the 1.3 million infected clearly don't have this new strain, but are probably infected with other milder strains of the flu. (There are at least 5 flu strains in circulation this year).
In general, however, the "Swine Flu" appears to be fairly weak. WHO reports only about 4000 deaths in the U.S. since April attributed to H1N1. On average, 36,000 die from "normal" flu in the U.S. alone each year. So the dread "swine flu," and all the hoopla about the vaccinations, appears to be much ado about nothing. The Swine flu may be a rapidly spreading illness, but it is simply not that threatening, and appears to have a mortality rate many times weaker than the "normal" flu.
So is the emerging outbreak in Ukraine evidence of a newly mutated strain of swine flu? WHO knows...or perhaps they don't know. The international agency has been surprisingly mute on the subject, and has not released genetic sequences on this new strain. Labs in the UK are presently working on this. WHO's official statement reports: "The initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus."
So take all these reports together, look at the death tolls, and you have to conclude that this year's flu season is a paper tiger. CDC estimates that 22 million Americans have contracted the disease with only 4000 deaths. If this were anything like the 1918-1919 Spanish flu it would have already killed 550,000 people.
People in the Ukraine have much more to worry about than the flu. They were considering printing a billion hryvnias to combat the flu bug, but that proposition was vetoed. Meanwhile, their national rail agency defaulted on its $550 million loan, their banks have all been downgraded to B- by ratings agency Fitch, their national debt reached 44.5% of GDP this year, their foreign trade surplus fell 26.9%, their steel sector is reducing output 20%, and they can't pay Russia for natural gas. Clearly their financial flu is much more threatening than the viral stuff.
I'd say the same for things here in the U.S.
