Friday, May 14, 2010

Oil "Spill" Much Greater Than Reported

This goes without saying to any person with an ounce of brains: the mainstream media is not reporting the full extent of the oil disaster underway in the Gulf of Mexico. The very use of the word "spill" to describe it immediately understates the magnitude of the event, which is largely unseen by cameras or satellite photography. For this was no ordinary "spill," an event that originates on the surface. Instead it was a blown out wellhead 5000 feet deep that is gushing oil from a ruptured pipe, the leak area nearly two feet in diameter.

The "Blow Out" refers to the failure of the massive Blow Out Prevention device (BOP) that sits directly atop the wellhead itself. This device has valves that are designed to close and pinch off the pipe passing through it in the event of a problem. In this event, the natural gas and oil that blew up through the pipe seems to have inhibited the BOP from closing off the leak, though it still remains attached to the wellhead itself. Oil is leaking from the mile long pipe that was attached to the top of the BOP, in at least two places now. The attempt to siphon off oil has helped, but only slightly. The main problem facing BP engineers is that the debris infused oil is eroding the steel elements of the BOB itself, and the crimped pipe attached to its top. It is only a matter of time before this erosion threatens to create an even more massive leak, and if the BOP were to be actually blown off the wellhead, then we would be looking at something even worse.

For now, however, it's the pipe attached to the BOP that is gushing oil. A pipe of that diameter can "spill" oil at a rate far beyond that being now reported by BP.  In fact, writer Paul Noel, founder of the New Energy Congress,  revealed that BP managers were celebrating on the rig right before the explosion, and that the company expected the well would yield at least 100,000 barrels per day under controlled conditions. Should the BOP itself fail  or break off due to erosion before they can stop the leak, then the wellhead is said to be "running wild," which is a much greater flow rate than under controlled conditions

And how much oil is the well tapping into, another 25,000 feet beneath the ocean floor? Noel believes the deposit is in the trillions of barrels: "This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with 70,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away."   Other experts have dismissed this saying the reservoir is known to be pressurized at 11,900psi. Perhaps Noel exaggerates to make a point, as the "trillions" of barrels would make it the largest known reservoir on earth, and that seems highly unlikely. (Saudi Arabia has only about 267 billion  barrels in stated "proven" reserves.) But the main point to take away here is that know one seems to really know just how much oil the well tapped into before it blew. What if it is a truly massive reservoir of oil?

It is estimated that 80% of the oil spilled since April 22 is still deep underwater and may never reach the surface. The oil slick we can see is only composed of the lightest elements, and the real sludge of heavy oil is still hanging in a vast plume beneath the surface, now estimated to be ten miles long and eight miles wide. The size of that plume could hold well over 8.5 million barrels of oil already if the 4 barrel per second estimate is correct.  Other analysts at Purdue University say the gush is at least 70,000 barrels per day, but take your pick--it is either 14 times greater than reported or 70 times greater than reported. The truth probably lies somewhere in that range.

So let's be plain here. This amount of oil is not going to "cleaned up" any time soon, if ever. It is likely to remain in the ocean indefinitely, eventually settling to the ocean floor, a mile deep, where it will create a dead zone in the heart of what was once one of the most productive fisheries on earth. This area produces a third of the seafood harvested each year. You can write a huge chunk of that off for the foreseeable future. This oil will go on killing sea life for another decade or more. And it may not be contained for another 90 days, which would make it an unprecedented catastrophe, the greatest "spill" we have ever had. Some articles say it may leak for years if not quickly capped.

The next hurricane that comes churning into the Gulf of Mexico will be much like taking an egg beater to a bowl of motor oil and water, and it will drive the lighter elements ashore wherever it makes landfall. 

Meanwhile, TransOcean, the company operating the well, has put in a court motion to try and limit its damages to $27 Million...this after it was reported that the company collected several hundred million in insurance on the event, in effect, a big profit!