NOTE: This post will update daily as events play out in Egypt.
02/11/11 - MUBARAK RESIGNS! Power handed over to Military Council. Hundreds of thousands of jubilant demonstrators celebrated the People’s victory in Tahrir Square. Al Jazeera reports that Mubarak has left Cairo for a Red sea coastal resort while “the military said it would guarantee changes to the constitution as well as a free and fair election, and it called for normal business activity to resume.” With Mubarak handing over power to the Military, the position of VP Suleiman remained uncertain. It was clear yesterday that he remained president only in title. What we saw in the speech was little more than stubborn Arab male pride. The military, which has largely served as a referee to contain police brutality, is now the real center of government power in Egypt, backed by the awesome street power of the People, who defied an entrenched autocratic regime and its police force of 30,000 thugs. The army has been a trump card all along, an army of the people that refused to turn its guns on the the brothers, sisters, aunts and uncles in the protesting crowd. And isn’t it amazing how the “pro-government protesters” have also vanished again, just as the 30,000 police vanished for a three day huddle before they came charging back on horses and camels and trucks filled with rocks?
Day 18 saw “The People” out in force again, unintimidated, determined, victorious, as the rest of the oppressive Arab regimes in the Levant and Arabian Peninsula looked on with growing unease.
02/09/11 - As millions of Americans moved their focus of attention from the Superbowl to the Oscars and Valentine’s Day, protests were bolstered by substantial support from Egypt’s unions on day 16 of the historic uprising. Government VP wide receiver Suleiman, who took the lateral pass from Mubarak as protesters put on a strong rush, was on the air again warning that the country could not tolerate the demonstrations indefinitely. To this Abdul-Rahman Samir, a spokesman for the demonstrators commented: "He is threatening to impose martial law, which means everybody in the square will be smashed. But what will he do with the rest of the 70 million Egyptians who will follow us afterward?" Good question.
So it continues to be a standoff between the people in their massive numbers and an entrenched government determined to hold power at any cost. The veiled threats from the government and their statements about the damage to Egypt from the uprising were not so subtle attempts to fix blame on the anti-government camp. I have little doubt that all the “pro-government” protesters, chastened in recent days for “unnecessary roughness,” are huddled somewhere going over their play book to see if they can get their running game of street thuggery going again once Mubarak and Suleiman give the go sign. This isn’t over, and the story could move quickly from this standoff stage to violence again at any time.
02/07/11 - Something that wasn’t much noticed in the furor over Mubarak was the inconvenient natural gas pipeline explosion in Sinai near the town of El Arish on Feb 5th. Word on the Net is that Hamas infiltrated a special attack team to conduct the operation, which resulted in Egypt diverting natural gas bound for Israel to fuel domestic needs “indefinitely.” Israel has just lost 25% of its natural gas supply, but the situation in Jordan is even worse where they lost 80% of their supply and must now revert to heavy oil to keep the power stations running there.
As usual, any “trouble” in the Middle East always has a back story involving oil and gas. The US, which has been moving military “assets” like the Marine CV Kearsarge to the region has also reportedly dispatched elements of a national guard regiment to join the UN observer teams along the Sinai border. Israel beefed up security there, and at all its power stations, as well. Egypt also sent more troops to the border region.
Elsewhere in the region, Tehran is late on its promise to start up its Bushehr nuclear reactor due to a second infection by a nefarious Internet virus dubbed “Stuxnet.” And so not to be outdone by Egypt, Tehran stopped thousands of fuel trucks bound for Afghanistan, causing immediate price spikes there by as much as 70%.
Here in the US the public will awaken this morning still burping its nachos and buffalo wings, with visions of Super Bowl commercials and LED enhanced dancers glowing in their foggy minds. Perhaps some will take notice of the quiet price spike over here when it comes to gasoline, which hit $3.60 per gallon (regular) in some spots this week, particularly in places like California, which always leads the gas price wars.
02/06/11 - Mubarak’s son and most of the NDP resigned their positions this weekend, though the president himself has dug in his heels, determined to wait out the storm in Egypt. With images of the police/thug instigated violence circulating worldwide in spite of a calculated effort to target and suppress the free press, the Army is now intervening when things get too hot, and the violence has been quelled. That said, Katie Curic, Brian Williams and other major news reps who were all set to present “live coverage” from Egypt have all come scurrying home. The place is just too dangerous for major news anchors to do their thing.
02/11/11 - MUBARAK RESIGNS! Power handed over to Military Council. Hundreds of thousands of jubilant demonstrators celebrated the People’s victory in Tahrir Square. Al Jazeera reports that Mubarak has left Cairo for a Red sea coastal resort while “the military said it would guarantee changes to the constitution as well as a free and fair election, and it called for normal business activity to resume.” With Mubarak handing over power to the Military, the position of VP Suleiman remained uncertain. It was clear yesterday that he remained president only in title. What we saw in the speech was little more than stubborn Arab male pride. The military, which has largely served as a referee to contain police brutality, is now the real center of government power in Egypt, backed by the awesome street power of the People, who defied an entrenched autocratic regime and its police force of 30,000 thugs. The army has been a trump card all along, an army of the people that refused to turn its guns on the the brothers, sisters, aunts and uncles in the protesting crowd. And isn’t it amazing how the “pro-government protesters” have also vanished again, just as the 30,000 police vanished for a three day huddle before they came charging back on horses and camels and trucks filled with rocks?
Day 18 saw “The People” out in force again, unintimidated, determined, victorious, as the rest of the oppressive Arab regimes in the Levant and Arabian Peninsula looked on with growing unease.
02/09/11 - As millions of Americans moved their focus of attention from the Superbowl to the Oscars and Valentine’s Day, protests were bolstered by substantial support from Egypt’s unions on day 16 of the historic uprising. Government VP wide receiver Suleiman, who took the lateral pass from Mubarak as protesters put on a strong rush, was on the air again warning that the country could not tolerate the demonstrations indefinitely. To this Abdul-Rahman Samir, a spokesman for the demonstrators commented: "He is threatening to impose martial law, which means everybody in the square will be smashed. But what will he do with the rest of the 70 million Egyptians who will follow us afterward?" Good question.
So it continues to be a standoff between the people in their massive numbers and an entrenched government determined to hold power at any cost. The veiled threats from the government and their statements about the damage to Egypt from the uprising were not so subtle attempts to fix blame on the anti-government camp. I have little doubt that all the “pro-government” protesters, chastened in recent days for “unnecessary roughness,” are huddled somewhere going over their play book to see if they can get their running game of street thuggery going again once Mubarak and Suleiman give the go sign. This isn’t over, and the story could move quickly from this standoff stage to violence again at any time.
02/07/11 - Something that wasn’t much noticed in the furor over Mubarak was the inconvenient natural gas pipeline explosion in Sinai near the town of El Arish on Feb 5th. Word on the Net is that Hamas infiltrated a special attack team to conduct the operation, which resulted in Egypt diverting natural gas bound for Israel to fuel domestic needs “indefinitely.” Israel has just lost 25% of its natural gas supply, but the situation in Jordan is even worse where they lost 80% of their supply and must now revert to heavy oil to keep the power stations running there.
As usual, any “trouble” in the Middle East always has a back story involving oil and gas. The US, which has been moving military “assets” like the Marine CV Kearsarge to the region has also reportedly dispatched elements of a national guard regiment to join the UN observer teams along the Sinai border. Israel beefed up security there, and at all its power stations, as well. Egypt also sent more troops to the border region.
Elsewhere in the region, Tehran is late on its promise to start up its Bushehr nuclear reactor due to a second infection by a nefarious Internet virus dubbed “Stuxnet.” And so not to be outdone by Egypt, Tehran stopped thousands of fuel trucks bound for Afghanistan, causing immediate price spikes there by as much as 70%.
Here in the US the public will awaken this morning still burping its nachos and buffalo wings, with visions of Super Bowl commercials and LED enhanced dancers glowing in their foggy minds. Perhaps some will take notice of the quiet price spike over here when it comes to gasoline, which hit $3.60 per gallon (regular) in some spots this week, particularly in places like California, which always leads the gas price wars.
02/06/11 - Mubarak’s son and most of the NDP resigned their positions this weekend, though the president himself has dug in his heels, determined to wait out the storm in Egypt. With images of the police/thug instigated violence circulating worldwide in spite of a calculated effort to target and suppress the free press, the Army is now intervening when things get too hot, and the violence has been quelled. That said, Katie Curic, Brian Williams and other major news reps who were all set to present “live coverage” from Egypt have all come scurrying home. The place is just too dangerous for major news anchors to do their thing.
US diplomats decried the violence as “unacceptable” but I found myself wondering what the US government would do if this were happening on the Mall in Washington DC...day after day after day.... How soon we forget how anti-Bush demonstrations were handled here in this country. Remember “Free Speech Zones?” These were little well guarded street pens, isolated from all media, where anyone with a beef was forced to go if they wanted to protest here. The FBI and secret service kept a close eye on them, made sure the cameras were OFF, except those they used to surveil the demonstrators. It was basically a polite version of the Mubarak media crackdown, without the camel and cavalry charges, batons, and rifle fire. Yet looking back on those cold eight years under Bush, can we really say free speech prevailed here? I’m wondering... if US citizens ever pulled a “Cairo” in Washington D.C., demonstrating in a mass scale for weeks on end, would the actions of our government match our “free speech / human rights” rhetoric? Did we pass the test when the batons and tear gas came out in Chicago at the Democratic national convention when McGovern ran? Did we measure up when the rifle fire started at Kent State and “Four dead in Ohio” became an anthem that moved a generation of young Americans to protest the Vietnam war?
I wonder what we would do if faced with a similar “uprising” here in the US. Our “Patriot Act,” is about to be quietly renewed by congress before it expires Feb 28th this year. Think you’ll see a lot of major media coverage here about that? Nope. But you can bet any amount of money the Feds would be quoting from the Patriot Act chapter and verse if Cairo ever happened here...And not quoting from the constitution.
How stupid can the Mubarak government be? Their cavalry/camel charge failing to have any real impact, it was gunfire that punctuated the overnight hours, finally prompting the Egyptian army to temporarily separate the two groups. After more anti-Mubarak protesters reinforced those remaining in embattled Tahrir Square, the army stepped back again, and clashes resumed. Clearly the army is treading a fine line here. They may as well turn in their uniforms for black and white vertical striped shirts, as they appear to be little more than referees in the conflict, there only to keep things from really getting out of hand.
The protesters bravely held their ground overnight after 1300 injuries were reported, and eight were killed. One woman in the square phoning in to Al Jazeera put their position quite simply. “We are staying until Mubarak goes, because if we give up now they will just hunt us down one by one after we leave here.” The chilling truth in her voice spoke of long familiarity with the Egyptian “Ministry of the Interior” and the cadres of police that have been the street muscle of the Mubarak regime for decades. The whole world now sees their handiwork first hand. Deception, brutality, brazen attack on citizens and all media sources.
The clock is now ticking in this dangerous standoff. The protesters have stated that Friday is their deadline for Mubarak to step down. Meanwhile, shortages of cash, bread and fuel become more serious. As I write now a large new group of protesters are assembling in Alexandria, and Al Jazeera reports they have been “infiltrated by plain clothes police who are attacking them and trying to ignite more violence.” Mubarak’s song remains the same.
02/02/11 - President Mubarak announced that he would not run for re-election in September, but the massive crowd in Tahrir square reacted with anger and disappointment. They continued to insist Mubarak must go now, and remained in the square. Yet the President clung stubbornly to power after 8 days of anti-government demonstrations, and he appears to have come up with a new strategy--taking the fight to the streets.
“Pro-government supporters” suddenly appeared in Alexandria yesterday to clash with the crowd, and today well organized groups of “pro-government supporters” literally arrived in trucks and busses at the approaches to the square to begin hurling rocks at the crowd within. They didn’t come with signs and slogans to make a peaceful demonstration, but with stones, batons and weapons. They had horses and camels and mounted charges against the people. The rocks were conveniently ready in the bed of the large trucks! And as night fell rifle fire was directed at the crowd, with four reported dead and over 500 injured.
The Army broke up the one emerging conflict in Alexandria, but has not moved to intervene in Tahrir square. Mubarak’s plain clothes secret police, the 30,000 regular police, all mysteriously “vanished,” two days ago. Yet now they appear to have returned in street clothes in the guise of “pro-government supporters,” many who stupidly still carried their police ID cards! Citizens phoning in to Al Jazeerah stated they could point out police officers that they knew from decades of interaction. With this thinly veiled ploy, Mubarak tries to make it seem that the government itself did nothing to incite the violence. Opposition voice Elbaradei condemned the move as “a crime against Egypt” and called in vain for the army to intervene.
The president appears to be counting on the growing instability to create such a desperate environment in the country that his cadres of trained thugs will prevail on the streets and the people will give up and go home. Will it work? Stay tuned.
02/01/11 - Up to two million people converged on Tahrir Square in Cairo to continue their protest against the Mubarak regime. As they did so the sound of yet another Arab government falling dimly echoed from the other side of Suez. King Abdullah II dismissed the Jordanian Government and selected a new Prime Minister with orders to begin reform and ease the hardships of the people. He might better begin by stepping down himself and ending the process of royal rule altogether, where Prime Ministers are "selected" and not "elected." Yet, as the fire of revolution now burns eastward onto the Arabian Peninsula and into the Levant, at least something of the message being shouted by the people is being heard. In Kuwait the ruling elite have decided to roll out the Burgie instead of the police and APCs. They will be paying every citizen a sum of $3000. (US) per month for the next several months, and also providing free food! Clearly they are hoping to prevent protests from coming to the shores of the Persian Gulf by literally buying good will now while they can.
The protesters represent the entire cross section of Egyptian society, the wealthy business class notably excepted, as they have already boarded their private jets for calmer climes. Far from the oddly paranoid notions of Glenn Beck on Fox News, this is no sinister “Islamic insurgency.” The people in Tahrir square represent all faiths, Christian and Muslim, and secular society as well. They are men and women, old and young, from nearly all walks of life. The Muslim Brotherhood organization mentioned in the news represents no more than 20% of the population,( a percentage roughly in line with Beck’s hard core followers here in the US.) Thank God both exist on the margins of their respective societies. Their voices join with the whole, yet do no dominate.
Meanwhile Mubarak is still standing fast in the presidential palace, and his home is now encircled by defensive barbed wire. The army remains in place throughout key cities of Egypt, yet no move has been made to quell the protests in the streets. Mass demonstrations were also staged in Alexandria and Suez in spite of efforts to curtail protest organization by shutting down the Internet and cell phone service. In its place the "Ministry of the Interior" and Egyptian media are broadcasting images of quiet streets and army units posted on empty bridges, as if the two million people gathered in the square were not there. These feeble measures, aimed at stifling free communication and using the media to deceive and cover up the truth, are pathetically typical of dictatorial regimes. Mubarak's only strategy now seems to be stubbornness, along with an equal measure of blindness. Meanwhile, food supplies and the basic commerce of the nation are becoming more stressed. Is Mubarak waiting for hunger to add fuel to the fire of this growing revolution? If so, it will be the most serious mistake of his life. Clearly, unequivocally, the Egyptian people have crossed their Rubicon with this uprising, and there is no going back.
01/31/11 - As Mubarak continued to go about rearranging furniture in his cabinet, a "March of Millions" is now being planned by the people increase pressure on the embattled strongman to step down. Meanwhile, another dimension of the crisis is building behind the scenes, as "investors" have transferred hundreds of millions of dollars out of the country. Like the wealthy businessmen who have already fled, the elite are covering their bets and cashing out on the Egyptian people. Banks and stock exchanges remain closed, and should banks open again it is likely that people would rush to withdraw what little they have there as well. The result will be a nation gripped by severe financial crisis, (as if current financial conditions were not bad enough), making stability even more difficult for any interim government to achieve. As in any crisis, people are seldom prepared, and basic food stocks run out quickly. Shortages lead to rapid price inflation, increasing the need for cash while banks remain closed. A massive population, already marginalized by poverty, unemployment and economic hardship, will find itself near the edge in little time. All this will do is increase the likelihood of violence, because when the normal means of commerce and exchange fail, hungry people will simply take what they need by force. Keep this back story in mind as you watch events play out this week.
01/30/11 - Al Jazeera reports agreement has been reached by the largest opposition groups in Egypt to nominate former nuclear watchdog Elbaradei as interim President. Elbaradi appeared in Tahrir square and addressed the crowd saying: "What we have begun cannot go back." Yet nothing substantial has come of this if the report is true. The historical revolution underway in the Arab world's most populous nation continues in the heart of Cairo, buzzed by military jet fighters that the people completely ignore, along with the curfew order that has been defied again for the consecutive third night.
Meanwhile, US rhetoric continues to evolve as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated that the US wants an orderly transition to a new government. Yet Mubarak continues to hold meetings with his newly appointed strong men, as if this change of clothing will fool the public into quiescence again. It will not. Something far more profound than simple "discontent" and political protests is now underway in Egypt. The foreshocks in Morocco and Tunisia were triggers, but Egypt is the San Andreas fault of the Arab world. This is one of those moments that move the fulcrum of history, and in spite of Mubarak's efforts to quell news and communications in Egypt, (Al Jazeera reports its bureau was shut down by government security), the whole world is watching--particularly the Arab world.
Dimitri Orlov's wheel slowly creaked and turned in Egypt as the world moved decidedly into Stage III collapse in recent months. For those unfamiliar with his writings, Orlov laid out a pathway for collapse after witnessing the event first hand when the old Soviet Union tumbled into the dustbin of history. Stage I was "Financial Collapse," Stage II was "Commercial Collapse," and we have now entered the more dangerous and explosive Stage III: "Political Collapse."
The process has been underway for some time. Here in the U.S. the Obama administration witnessed an overwhelming majority mandate erode away, losing the House of Representatives and forcing the president to "flee to the center" in just two short years. Clearly his inability to adequately address the causes or find real solutions to Stage I Wall Street and Big Bank shenanigans, and the awful job and home stealing Stage II it brought on the nation, has resulted in a real political crisis for him.
Overseas things are a little more advanced. People took torches to the parliament building in Iceland, they've been rioting in Greece for months, major protests have shaken Great Britain and France, and now the torch of discontent has lit the fire of revolution in North Africa. When this happens governments don't just flee to the center--they flee the country. altogether. The protests spread quickly from Morocco to Tunisia in a matter of days. Now the unrest has ignited in Egypt where people organized a "Day of Rage" against the long entrenched Mubarak government. In just a few days street protests have escalated in violence. On January 28, the police, some 30,000 strong in Cairo, were further reinforced by the Egyptian Army. Tear gas, batons, and gunfire have been used against the people. Armored vehicles are on the streets, though the army has not directly engages the protesters. The government has attempted to shut down the Internet and cell phone service there as well, as Facebook and other sites has been used to organize protests and rally the people.
Club them, gas them, shoot them, shut it down, roll out the tanks. These are the knee jerk responses of a government deeply disconnected from the real lives of its citizens. Mubarak finally broke his silence saying he would dismiss the government and start over--with him still at the helm as president. The instinct is to maintain order and power at any cost. Clearly Mubarak will not flee to Saudi Arabia as easily as others before him, even though “opposition leader” Elbaradei has arrived in the country to try and ride the wave of protest to the presidency there. He narrowly avoided a police charge outside a mosque the day of his arrival. Then reports circulated that he was under house arrest, as the government moved to prevent him from becoming a lightning rod for the protesters, but these reports were subsequently denied.
Now Elbaradi has addressed the crowd in Tahrir Square, clearly eager to put himself forward as a candidate for negotiations on a new interim government. The upheaval has created a power vacuum that will undoubtedly attract figures like this hoping to exploit the situation. Even the son of Gamel Abdul Nasr (Egyptian strong man before Sadat) joined the crowd to express his views on the uprising. Elbaradi, a member of the intelligentsia who has spent most of his life outside of Egypt, and now serves as an Executive Committee Member on the International Crisis Group, is hardly a symbol of the common Egyptian. Yet, one cannot help but recall images of Boris Yeltzin standing with the Russian protesters as the Soviet Union collapsed. A transitional figure always appears, yet it remains to be seen whether Elbaradi can consolidate and effectively represent opposition power, or if the people will accept him as their representative in any real way.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition movement in the country, has thrown its support behind the protesters. Like rats fleeing a sinking ship, a cabal of top Egyptian business CEOs have reportedly fled. Reports have also surfaced that Mubarak's wife and family have already left the country, and that the president has explored plans to fly to Tel Aviv after being rebuffed by a justifiably nervous House of Saud.
Mubarak's move to appoint military and intelligence service insiders followed his speech to the nation wherein he claimed he was "on the side of the poor." The people simply did not buy it, and analysts seemed shocked at his disconnect with reality. The singular cry from the demonstrators from day one has been for Mubarak to go. It was clear that only the police and army stood between him and a noose. The real test of any government is this: can the leaders face their people and be embraced? Could Mubarak show his face on the streets of Cairo now? I think not.
Day five of the uprising saw the hated police finally overwhelmed and withdrawing to gutted police stations, no longer on the streets. Only the army was able to select out key enclaves like the Museum of antiquities, and protect them from harm. Elsewhere in Cairo, citizens have armed themselves to protect their interests, as there is now no firm rule of law. In a way I am reminded of the US army rolling into Baghdad after overthrowing Saddam. The armored division could not maintain control of the city any more than the Egyptian army can control the country there. The US guarded the oil ministry, then holed up in the Green Zone in the city for the duration of the war. Let this stand as a clear example of the complete impotence of government to impose its will on a hostile population. All the talk over here in spooky internet circles about FEMA camps, martial law and US divisions being trained to deploy in our cities is utter nonsense. The people, in their massive numbers, trump all when they take to the streets. The "ruling elite" should take notice. Mubarak's oppressive secret plain clothes police, the regular police, and the army can do little more than maintain a tenuous holding action in scattered outposts in Cairo. Elsewhere, "The People" are expressing their will in massive numbers. First they raise their voices, and when this is unheeded, then they raise their arms in protest. They have defied curfew orders, swarmed army and police armored vehicles, raided police stations, and persist with their demand: Mubarak must go.
It's Stage Three.... And it will just get worse until the inequalities of wealth distribution are corrected and people are no longer exploited, turned out of their homes, and squeezed by high food prices and joblessness. Amazingly, Washington's blog reported on Jan 30 that the wealth disparity here in the US is actually greater than in Egypt, yet Americans remain passive. Face it -- only the lack of real hunger in the U.S., where 43 million now rely on food stamps each week, keeps people off our streets -- that and our endless juvenile fascination with sports and celebrities. My bet is that more US citizens will watch the Super Bowl this weekend than news of the historic uprising in Egypt. Here we meekly accepted 20% real unemployment along with the 20% interest rates on our credit cards the banks long ago saddled us with, while they continue to borrow money from the Fed at near zero interest, not to lend and revitalize the economy, but to continue their speculation and "investment" in bonds and securities. Not a single CEO has been brought to justice for the $12.6 trillion dollar heist they pulled off. But if the ignorance and passivity of the American people will not demand real change here, it can come cascading to our shores from overseas.
How long will it be before Stage III takes a more ominous form in this country? As the fire of revolution spreads across north Africa and onto the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, the House of Saud is no doubt very edgy these days. If we see street riots in Riyadh this year the ripple effect will shake us as well, right through Exxon to Main Street USA. Oil prices, already creeping toward the $100 mark, have surged again. Think it can't happen here? It already has. Our nation was born in revolution, and it can clearly happen again.
The message resounding in the streets of Cairo is plain for all to hear. When inequity and corruption rule the day; when justice is bought and paid for by the banks and the wealthy investor class, governments fall, even in civilized Western nations like ours. Just ask King Louie or the Romanovs.
- John Schettler, Jan-Feb, 2011
