03/12/11 - As the world was riveted by scenes of horror and utter destruction in Japan, the drama playing out on the coast of Libya was swept from the news bars. Libyan resistance fighters lost their grip on Mersa El Brega Saturday, continuing to withdraw through Adjabiya. Reports are that they are running low on ammunition and the weight of Gaddafi’s air power and armor is clearly turning the tide of the battle against them.
Strategically, the rebel advance was fueled by the zeal and fervor of the youthful fighters more than anything else, but was not a wise military maneuver. The lightly armed rebel partisans advance in pickup trucks and SUVs, small, inexperienced groups of young men exposed on the wide desert plains and dusty open roads. They have little real offensive capability if opposed by a trained military with armor and air cover, and the isolated towns along the road from Brega to Surt provide them little fodder for defense. The rebel advantage only truly exists in the larger cities, where the urban environment makes deployment and use of Gaddafi’s key assets (air power and armor) much more difficult, both in practical terms and public relations terms. His forces fought for two weeks to take Az Zawiya, wreaking wanton destruction there, and are now busy covering up the damage to hide the atrocities they unleashed on the Libyan people.
This revolution is different from that in Egypt because the so called “Libyan” army, infused with mercenary fighters from Sudan and Central Africa, (purchased by Gaddafi’s ill gotten billions), have no qualms about killing Libyan citizens. Gaddafi and his sons have tried to characterize this as a civil war fomented by outside terrorists who are holding the rebel held towns hostage. Nothing could be farther from the truth. This is not a civil war. There is no significant segment of the Libyan population supporting Gaddafi’s regime. His rule is extended through bribes, fear, oppression and cold hard cash. What we are watching is a war of oppression unleashed by a ruthless dictator on the Libyan people, not two opposing segments of the Libyan population vying for control. It’s Gaddafi and his thuggish security forces and mercenaries vs the people of Libya. Only in Surt, where Gaddafi has tribal roots well watered by his money and favor, will he enjoy any real popular support. All the rest he pays for, or commands at the point of a gun.
So while Western nations equivocate, ruminate, hold meetings, parse words in diplomatic statements, and issue meaningless warnings, the bottom line is that they have done nothing. Sanctions will not deter a man like Gaddafi. Sternly worded statements for the news media and finger wagging are pointless. And while we withhold any real support for the Libyan revolution, lacking the will to make a decisive choice in the matter, we tacitly lend support to Gaddafi through our inaction at this critical moment in the history of this region. And History will remember.
Gaddafi takes good advantage of the situation by hastening to crush the rebel forces under his tank tracks while he still can. I have little doubt that he is now eying Benghazi as his next Az Zawiya. If he can crush the rebellion there, at its very heart, the example will undoubtedly have a chilling effect on the remaining rebel towns and tribes.
The revolution has now reached a key tipping point. What will the West, and particularly the United States do? Will we sit by and let Gaddafi ravage Benghazi as he did Az Zawiya, and then let him launch the inevitable pogrom of reprisal against the rebel population for daring to demand their freedom? This is one of those moments on the cusp of time where decisive action in support of the revolution now could have the most dramatic and transforming effect on the region as a whole. But the West is well accustomed to turning a blind eye on oppression and even outright genocide... And Colonel Gaddafi knows this all too well. If we let this man trample his people into submission again, then shame on us as a nation, and as a people. And shame on Italy, France, and Germany as well, the old colonial masters of North Africa who sent their armed forces to exploit and war on each other in Libya in decades past, but cannot now muster the resolution and the means to end the reign of terror of this petty dictator once and for all by siding with those seeking their freedom.
The Arab League formally requested that the UN impose a no Fly Zone today, and recognized the Interim Council in Benghazi as the legitimate government representing the Libyan people. Meanwhile, a Libyan resistance fighter watched his brothers retreating under Gaddafi’s withering air strikes and wept. “Where is the West?”
03/11/11 - The potential political earthquake of Saudi Arabia’s “Day of Rage” was upstaged by Mother Nature and the massive earthquake/tsunami in Japan.
Over 35,000 people signed on in support of the two planned protests in Saudi Arabia this kindling was not enough to ignite a major demonstration. After what has already happened in Bahrain, the planned event had the Kingdom so worried that it signed on ten thousand new inductees to its security services in the last few weeks and deployed these forces to expected gathering places for any protest. Saudi government spokespersons have stated they would “cut off the finger” of anyone who raises their hand in protest. It has also put up a pro-Saud government Facebook site to counter the dissident Internet presence, and has opened up the royal coffers of late with $37 billion in low interest loans to its citizenry and a hefty 15% pay raise for all government employees. Yet the fire of dissent will not leave the Kingdom untouched. Friday also saw planned protests in Yemen and Kuwait that were largely overshadowed by the news out of Japan.
Meanwhile, NATO began 24 hr “surveillance” over Libyan airspace, (most likely by AWACS early warning radar planes out of Malta). The move is a necessary prelude to any potential “No Fly Zone,” should one be declared. The merits of such an operation have been debated in our media, with retired military types stating that a No Fly Zone would require intensive strikes on Libya’s “Integrated air defense system,” requiring us to take out command and control facilities, air strips, SAM-6 sites, etc.
Having studied military history most of my life and designed many professional military simulations in years past, Western powers need not impose such a wide ranging No Fly Zone to achieve what they want here--the end of Libyan air strikes on rebellious citizenry. Simply declare the No Fly Zone to be in effect, and handle the matter locally. Most of Gaddafi’s air strikes have been right near the coast. Our AWACs surveillance can determine where Gaddafi attempts to deploy air strikes, and we can fly combat air patrols locally in that one area, (such as over the current action near Ras Lanuf), daring him to challenge the superiority of Western air forces. The United States has not lost a single fighter to enemy aircraft for decades. Our naval aviators aboard CV Enterprise and the aircraft they fly are far superior to anything in the Libyan air force. Tell Gaddafi, through whatever back channel you wish, that should he challenge the No Fly Zone his aircraft will be shot down. Saddam did not challenge our No Fly Zone in Iraq, and it is my bet that Gaddafi will not challenge us here either, the memories of his last brush with American pilots over the Gulf of Sidra still fresh in his mind. Simply declare the No Fly Zone and be prepared to back it up if challenged and I would bet Gaddafi would order his air force to stand down. Libyan helicopters can be similarly grounded by threatening to take out the very few logistical bases they rely on for operations should they fly in support of the army again. Savvy and experienced military air campaign planners are undoubtedly war-gaming this possibility of a limited No Fly Zone that is dynamic, local and easily deployed with existing regional assets. Should Gaddafi challenge us with a SAM-6, the option to “unleash Hell” always remains available in reprisal.
Time to separate the boys from the men, Mr. President. Declare the No Fly Zone and see what results. And while you’re at it declare a naval exclusion zone as well to neutralize Libya’s gunboat diplomacy. It won’t stop Libya’s tanks on the ground, but it will be a sign of our support for the revolution, and strike a moral blow as well. But watch the clock closely as the sun rides high in Riyadh. Be prepared to handle a Saudi crackdown resulting in violence against its citizenry there with equal resolve. Yes, the Saudi’s will deploy American made M1-Abrahms tanks should the going get rough, and fly US made F-15 and F-16 fighters. Care to contemplate the old diplomatic standby of “sanctions” on Saudi Arabia? I think not.
Friday’s “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arabia may starkly reveal the two faced nature of “American Interests” in the region, where “Some Arabs are more equal than other Arabs,” to torture a famous line from Orwell’s Animal Farm. Hillary Clinton will have a lot to talk about on her visit to the region today.
